OK, it has been all about speeches, meetings and negotiations, for a while. Still, it is now time to get your pen and a sheet and start making your calculations. Would it be possible for both the ‘Farage – Grillo’ couple and Marine Le Pen’s front to create their own at the European Parliament? The battle is hard, but not impossible – technically speaking. Sort of walking on thin ice for getting the numbers they need, MEP by MEP, party by party, among those which haven’t decided their group yet. Figures, in term of MEPs, are there for both Le Pen and Farage: they are going to a lot of trouble because of the ‘seven states’ compulsory threshold.
To this day, still in the middle of negotiations, the alliance led by Front National is sure about parties coming from five countries, which have already made their acceptance official: the Italian Northern League, led by Matteo Salvini, the Belgian Vlaams Belang, the Austrian FPÖ, and the Dutch Freedom Party. They still miss two countries then. The frame of the possible UKIP allies is more vague: the British party refused to comment the situation until the end of the 5 Stars Movement’s referendum, which will be held later this week, on the approval – or denial – of the alliance with Farage. Probably, the British nationalist party would count on the Free Citizens’ Party of the Czech Republic, while the Lithuanian Order and Justice seemed to have moved away from a possible alliance with Farage, to one with Le Pen – who will then reach a ‘six country’ milestone.
You need to take out all the parties already adhering to the conservatives group from this Risk match. Led by British Tories, this group has already taken much: already the fourth force into the Parliament, it has already gained six of the thirty-four new entities elected (parties or individual MEPs). These forces made their adhesion official: Independent Greeks, the German Families’ Party, Danish People’s Party, True Finns, Common People and Independent Personalities’ Party and Nova, both from Slovakia. Moreover, seven of the parties which were already represented in the last term and affiliated to ECF have confirmed their collocation for the term to come.
If you do not take the above mentioned forces into consideration, hesitant entities are not many – yet, they would be enough for satisfying both Le Pen and Farage. Still “on the market”: Swedish Democrats, Polish Congress of the New Right, Bulgaria without Censorship, Alternative für Deutschland and Dutch Reformed Political Party. Each with different ideas, which could lead them to one side, the other, or neither of the two. The German AfD, for instance, is still among the NI due to the block of their adhesion to the Conservatives made by Cameron’s Tories – they did not want to irritate Angela Merkel, bitter enemy of the AfD.
The most suitable element for Le Pen’s alliance seems to be the Polish Right: with their adhesion, the group would be created. Bulgarian, Swedish, Dutch and Germans would be free to join Farage (if the AfD was not accepted by the ECR). There are some aces around: independent MEPs – for instance one MEP from Romania and another from Ireland – that could be convinced to join one faction or the other. Still a difficult match of Risk, then, yet feasible: we must bear in mind that it’s in the interest of both groups to have the other created. Together with the ECR, in fact, the groups led by Farage and Le Pen, respectively, would create a powerful ‘right block.’