Citizens will save the European Union

Something new is happening in the European Union. Something that explains why the upcoming European elections should confirm the “traditional” parliamentary majority. That ‘something’ is happening on the right, starting from a portion of the People’s Party represented by Fidesz, Victor Orban’s party, at the extreme. The Hungarian Prime Minister announced this in a fierce speech a couple of weeks ago, announcing that he wanted to “conquer the European Union.” Stefan Lehne pointed out in a podcast held with Carnegie Europe director Rosa Balfour that the narrative of the sovereignist right has changed in recent months. We are no longer hearing loud cries to leave the euro or the EU as a whole. The forces of the extreme right, from Hungary to Italy, with a few exceptions that voters seem to want to scale back, no longer seem to question the existence of the Union and being a part of it. Although, if they were to take control of it, they would distort it, leading it to its death.

Italy’s little laboratory seems to confirm this trend. While Premier Giorgia Meloni is doing everything she can to have a relevant role within the Union, completely changing the slogans she was using just a couple of years ago, Matteo Salvini’s League, also a member of the majority, is launching daily cutting remarks against the Union and sharply losing support (again based on polls). Even Fratelli d’Italia, Meloni’s party, no longer seems to be riding the wave of the first few months, although it remains firmly in first place in voters’ preferences. On the other hand, Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia, a moderate center-right party that never questioned membership in the European Union or the euro, is rising in the polls and seems likely to overtake the League.

In short, we can now say the Union is no longer in question, despite the inertia shown by the traditional parties — popular, socialist, and liberals – in countering the rise and growth of these sovereignist and disruptive forces. The facts probably explain why: despite the delay with which the pro-European parties have begun a contrast (which, perhaps, for some, has not even started), people realize how important the Union is; they realized that considering the recent past, without the Union the fight against the Covid would have been much more difficult, that without the Union working in concert with NATO and the U.S. in particular, Vladimir Putin would probably have already invaded Ukraine, Moldova, and put other border countries at severe risk as well. Citizens have realized the value of the strength that comes to everyone from standing together, even if often on shaky grounds, even with leaders that don’t deserve to be defined as such, and with answers to problems that do not come or come late.

Traditional parties have often suffered from the agenda of the extreme right, for example, migration policies, or chasing the right by a significant portion of the EPP on Green policies, coming out politically defeated more than once. But they have remained steadfast on the fundamental values of the Union and giving the Union a future, yielding little or nothing to this right-wing wind that is blowing strong but which is not a hurricane that sweeps everything away. In Poland, for example, the last elections drove away the PIS, the party that wanted to make a mockery of the Union. Poland is an important, populous country that matters in European balances and will be able to do so even more if it recognizes itself in the values of the Union.

Radical right-wing parties are changing their narrative in a less anti-European direction. Although the mainstream parties have not noticed their emergence and growth, even standing still, they have allowed to preserve some values, to highlight the unquestionable advantages that come from being together. If Orban now wants to “conquer” the European Union, this is a victory for the Union. And citizens perceive these things. They understand that the unrealistic simplicity of nationalist political forces that, as such, among other things, fail to cooperate internationally, do not help improve their lives, and most likely, for that reason, if they were to take over, they would quickly destroy what was painstakingly built over 60 years. And so, despite the lack of proposals from the pro-European parties, at the end of the day, the people have decided that it is better to continue trusting them. At least, that’s what polls show.