{"id":401107,"date":"2024-10-29T14:23:23","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T13:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2024\/10\/29\/georgia-elezioni-crisi-politica-post-voto\/"},"modified":"2024-11-05T18:28:07","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T17:28:07","slug":"chaos-in-georgia-the-country-is-on-the-brink-of-crisis-after-elections-with-strong-suspicions-of-fraud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/10\/29\/chaos-in-georgia-the-country-is-on-the-brink-of-crisis-after-elections-with-strong-suspicions-of-fraud\/","title":{"rendered":"Chaos in Georgia: the country is on the brink of crisis after elections, with strong suspicions of fraud"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brussels – After the controversial elections three days ago<\/strong>, which the pro-Russian governing party Georgian Dream<\/strong> says it won but which observers criticized as irregular, Georgia<\/strong> has entered a limbo of deep uncertainty<\/strong> that could result in a severe political-institutional crisis<\/strong> and, in the worst case scenario, into a new season of tension and violence<\/strong>, with significant repercussions for the Caucasian country’s international positioning<\/strong> and the stability of the entire region<\/strong>. On Monday evening (Oct. 28), pro-EU oppositions presented their demands<\/strong> during a peaceful demonstration they convened in the capital Tbilisi. However, it is unclear what will happen from here on.<\/p>\n

Georgians take to the streets<\/h3>\n

There were several thousand Georgians on the streets of Tbilisi<\/strong> last night demonstrating against the election “theft”<\/strong> that they blame on Georgian Dream<\/strong>, the party of pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili<\/strong> in power since 2012, which, according to the National Election Commission, won last Saturday’s election<\/a> with nearly 54 percent of the votes. The use of the conditional tense is a must because the Europeanist opposition parties<\/strong> (which, according to official figures, collectively won just under 38 percent) united behind the figure of the head of state, Salom\u00e9 Zourabichvili<\/strong>, contested the results of the ballot box<\/strong> denouncing systematic fraud and widespread irregularities throughout the country.<\/p>\n

So, about 20 thousand citizens responded to their call <\/strong>and peacefully poured out in front of the Soviet building on Rustaveli Avenue, where there is the Georgian Parliament (on which lasers projected words like “for sale”), waving the national flags with the five crosses, those with the twelve stars of the EU, and the yellow and blue flags of Ukraine. Between the protesters’ choruses were the national anthem and the Ode to Joy, i.e., that of the European Union. Their message to the ruling party (and its leader, Ivanishvili) was clear: Georgia feels European and does not want to submit to the Kremlin’s influence.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The population of the small Caucasian country — nestled between Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey and on the Black Sea — is one of the most pro-Western<\/strong> of the states that emerged from the rubble of the USSR, with about 80 percent of its citizens favoring Tbilisi’s Euro-Atlantic alignment<\/strong>. At the same time, most Georgians looked to Moscow with suspicion<\/strong> after the unwieldy neighbor invaded the country in 2008 to support the self<\/strong>–proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia<\/strong> that wanted independence and in which it still maintains its own troops (a similar situation<\/a> to the one in Moldova’s Transnistria<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

The (unclear) plan of opposition parties<\/h3>\n

President Zourabichvili addressed the crowd after convening the street demonstration on Sunday along with leaders of the parliamentary opposition parties. “Peacefully, as we are doing today, we will defend what is ours, your constitutional right to enforce your vote,<\/strong>” the head of state told the crowd, assuring that she would stand by citizens “until the end of this trip to Europe<\/strong>; until we get to its door.”<\/p>\n

For Zourabichvili and the opposition parties, EU membership is the first strategic priority<\/strong> for Georgia, and it is precisely what the ruling party is undermining with a series of repressive measures that led<\/a> Brussels to freeze the country’s candidate status<\/strong>. “This is not the time for pessimism, resignation, or surrender,” she continued from the stage. However, it is time to “get to the truth together<\/strong>.” To get to the “truth,” the opposition parties have drawn up a plan that includes four phases<\/strong>, even though the operational details<\/strong> of its implementation are not yet known.<\/p>\n

The starting point is an independent and thorough investigation into the election fraud<\/strong> that occurred on Saturday, which led the president herself to speak of “a Russian intelligence operation.” This should make it possible to officially declare the election<\/strong> illegitimate and allow the opposition forces–which now seem to have found some unity after showing up separately at the polls–to reject the entry of their elected officials into the new parliament<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Uphill Road<\/h3>\n

According to the Georgian Constitution<\/strong> (which addresses this matter<\/a> in Article 38), the new assembly has ten days from the proclamation of the results<\/strong> of the polls to take office and fully assume its functions. For its work to begin, a majority of the members of parliament<\/strong> (76 out of 150) must be present at the inaugural session, and two-thirds of the members of parliament<\/strong> (100 out of 150) must recognize the inauguration as having taken place to “acquire full powers.” The MPs of Georgian Dream<\/strong> alone (which, between the votes obtained from the proportional component and those from the uninominal constituencies, would have secured 89 seats) would not reach this threshold. However, it is unclear what would happen if the opposition parties carried the boycott all the way.<\/p>\n

If the single-chamber legislature fails to get its work underway, President Zourabichvili would have the power to disband it and call new elections<\/strong> that, in the hopes of the opposition parties and protesters, would have to be conducted under an international direction to ensure its integrity.<\/strong> An additional complicating factor, however, is the imminent expiration of the term of office of the current president,<\/strong> who has been at the helm of the state for more than five years (the statutory term of office), with the new parliament itself having to appoint her successor. In short, it is a narrow passage, <\/strong>and it remains to be seen what institutional solutions the various actors will adopt to break the impasse. Meanwhile, the resort to violence, <\/strong>particularly by the executive that controls the law enforcement agencies and could decide to use them to suppress dissent,<\/strong> cannot be ruled out entirely.<\/p>\n

Weak international support<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Beyond the relative vagueness of the plan presented to the square last night, there is little more than lukewarm support<\/strong> from Tbilisi’s international allies,<\/strong> at least at this stage. In these hours, an increasing number of Western countries condemned the irregularities in the election process <\/strong>(of which more and more documentation is emerging). However, no one has explicitly said the vote should be considered null and void<\/strong> and that the Georgian Dream does not represent the country’s government. For its part, the US<\/strong> has already imposed sanctions on some members of oligarch Ivanishvili’s party. However, next week’s presidential election outcome<\/strong> (on Nov. 5) will most likely determine Washington’s response in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

On the other side of the Atlantic, thirteen ministers from as many EU member states<\/strong> (Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Sweden) released<\/a> a joint statement<\/strong> where they condemned the “violations of electoral integrity<\/strong>,” called “incompatible with the standards expected of a candidate” for entry into the European club. They claimed that they “betrayed” the legitimate European aspirations of the Georgian people. In contrast, as usual, was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n<\/strong>, who rushed to Tbilisi<\/a> to congratulate his counterpart Irakli Kobakhidze<\/strong> in person — a move that Brussels and other chancelleries<\/strong> promptly criticized. <\/strong><\/p>\n

What happens now?”<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Saturday’s elections could represent a watershed. Many analysts speak of a crossroads for Tbilisi, <\/strong>which will now have to choose its international positioning. On the one hand, the firm anchorage in the Euro-Atlantic area<\/strong> with membership in the EU<\/strong> and, in the more distant future, perhaps even joining NATO.<\/strong> On the other, the return of Georgia into Moscow’s orbit,<\/strong> to end up as a satellite state (the same model as Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus) after the interlude of independence following the dissolution of the USSR but downsized by Russia with the invasion of 2008.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Naturally, the choice between these alternatives will have heavy repercussions on the stability<\/strong> of the country and the entire Caucasus region<\/strong>, strategically important as a “bridge” between Europe and the Russian Federation (especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine). According to Tefta Kelmendi,<\/strong> a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, if the ruling party remains in power, “Georgia risks slipping even further into the Russian sphere<\/strong>, which would also produce consequences that are difficult to predict “for neighboring Armenia’s efforts to decouple from Russia<\/strong> and would send concerning signals to Moldova and Ukraine<\/strong> regarding their prospects for integration into the EU<\/strong> as well as the loyalty and resilience of the EU itself.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Three days after the vote, marked by widespread and systematic violations, the former Soviet republic is suspended between the opposition’s demands (backed by the population) to return to the polls under international monitoring and the risk of institutional forcing by the pro-Russian government<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7876,"featured_media":401075,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1649,25707],"tags":[29494,27451,26963,27454,25803,27910],"class_list":["post-401107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-categorizzato","category-world-politics","tag-bidzina-ivanishvili-en","tag-georgia-and","tag-elezioni-georgia-2024-en","tag-dream-georgian-en","tag-russia-in-2","tag-salome-zourabichvili-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7876"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=401107"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401107\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":401112,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401107\/revisions\/401112"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/401075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=401107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=401107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=401107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}