{"id":404802,"date":"2024-11-15T10:30:51","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T09:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2024\/11\/15\/ue-eurozona-crescita-effetto-trump\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T20:10:42","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T19:10:42","slug":"eu-and-eurozone-slow-and-gradual-growth-but-the-trump-effect-weighs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/11\/15\/eu-and-eurozone-slow-and-gradual-growth-but-the-trump-effect-weighs\/","title":{"rendered":"EU and Eurozone: slow and gradual growth. But the Trump effect weighs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brussels &#8211; The good news is that &#8220;t<strong>he European economy is slowly recovering<\/strong>.&#8221; Economy Commissioner <strong>Paolo Gentiloni<\/strong> breathes a sigh of relief. Uncertainties &#8212; external and geopolitical &#8212; are still present and have not\u00a0dissipated. They will continue to overshadow scenarios and expectations. Indeed, they will intensify with Donald <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/11\/06\/trump-returns-to-the-white-house-and-the-european-union-worries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump&#8217;s return to the White House.<\/a> However, the autumn economic forecasts that the European Commission publicly releases show that &#8220;as inflation continues to ease and private consumption and investment growth pick up, <strong>growth is set to accelerate gradually over the next two years<\/strong>,&#8221; the Italian member of the College of Commissioners sums up.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lRu31\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<div class=\"OvtS8d\">Gentiloni had offered a preview\u00a0of the eurozone. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/10\/07\/eurozone-toward-confirmation-of-0-8-per-cent-growth-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Growth was confirmed at 0.8 percent in 2024, as budgeted<\/a>. It is the only\u00a0fact in the forecasts, certainly conservative, that\u00a0<strong>cut growth estimates for the eurozone by 0.1 percentage point in 2025<\/strong> (1.3 percent instead of 1.4 percent) <strong>and for the EU as a whole for this year and next<\/strong> (no longer 1 percent and 1.6 percent, but 0.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively).<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>Germany&#8217;s slowdown<\/strong> weighs on forecasts<strong>.<\/strong> Europe&#8217;s largest economy at the end of the year is practically at a standstill, moreover with a negative sign: Germany&#8217;s GDP is forecast\u00a0at -0.1 percent at the end of 2024, with 0.7 percent growth expected for 2025, below expectations reflecting a\u00a0cut from\u00a0the May forecast (by -0.3 percentage points).<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/20318712\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/20318712\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<h4 id='inflation-falls-economy-can-breathe'  id=\"boomdevs_1\">Inflation falls, economy can breathe<\/h4>\n<div>Driving this moderate recovery is\u00a0the <strong>easing of inflation<\/strong>. <span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">It is true that &#8220;price pressures in services remain elevated,&#8221; as the European Commission services acknowledge, &#8220;but they are expected to moderate from early 2025, led by slowing wage growth and an expected recovery in productivity, and supported by negative base effects.&#8221; Expectations are, therefore, for a hopeful decline in consumer, private, and industrial prices. Inflation is expected &#8220;to decline toward the [reference 2 percent] target in late 2025 in the euro area and 2026 in the EU.&#8221;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<h4 id='not-just-russia-eu-fears-the-trump-effect'  id=\"boomdevs_2\">Not just Russia, EU fears the &#8216;Trump effect&#8217;<\/h4>\n<div><span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">However, the European Union and its eurozone remain hostage to external factors. &#8220;Uncertainty and <strong>downside risks to the outlook have increased<\/strong>,&#8221;\u00a0 the European Commission acknowledges, as scenarios of trade wars with the United States must be added to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war that is increasingly complicated to predict in terms of conclusions and\u00a0the\u00a0intensifying conflict in the Middle East. There is no outright mention of President-elect Donald Trump. However,<\/span><\/span><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\"> the Commission\u00a0points out that &#8220;a\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\"><strong>further increase in protectionist measures by trading partners could weigh on global trade, with negative impact on the EU&#8217;s highly open economy.<\/strong>&#8221;<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Gentiloni, while presenting the autumn economic forecasts at a press conference, openly speaks of\u00a0the transatlantic partner. &#8220;<strong>A possible protectionist shift in US trade policy would be extremely damaging for both economies,<\/strong>&#8221;\u00a0the Commissioner for Economy emphasized, expressing confidence that any negative fallout for the US economy could serve as a reason to refrain from trade wars. While it will not be up to him or his colleagues in the College, he assures that &#8220;the Commission will work with the new US administration to promote a strong transatlantic agenda and ensure that international trade channels remain open while making them safer.&#8221;<\/div>\n<div><span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">In light of these factors, Gentiloni says clear choices are required that can no longer be delayed. &#8220;Looking to the future, strengthening our competitiveness through investment and structural reforms is key to increasing potential growth and managing growing geopolitical risks,&#8221;\u00a0the Economy Commissioner scolds. It means not delaying the implementation of recovery plans nor the path to fiscal consolidation because, he stresses, &#8220;<strong>any delay in the implementation of the Recovery Plan or a greater-than-expected impact of fiscal consolidation could further restrain the resumption of growth<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Commission&#8217;s autumn economic forecast confirms rising external uncertainties, including US protectionism. 2025 GDP estimate cut by 0.1 percentage point<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":494,"featured_media":404746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25705],"tags":[25881,25746,26267,29681,26096,25828,26107,25883,26312],"class_list":["post-404802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-forecast-economics-fall-en","tag-commissione-europea-en","tag-eurozone-en","tag-inflation-en","tag-paolo-gentiloni-en","tag-recessione-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/494"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=404802"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":405024,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404802\/revisions\/405024"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/404746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=404802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=404802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=404802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}