{"id":419490,"date":"2025-02-21T19:54:53","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T18:54:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2025\/02\/21\/elezioni-germania-trend-partiti-sondaggi\/"},"modified":"2025-02-22T10:24:25","modified_gmt":"2025-02-22T09:24:25","slug":"german-elections-the-great-uncertainty-in-politically-fractured-country","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2025\/02\/21\/german-elections-the-great-uncertainty-in-politically-fractured-country\/","title":{"rendered":"German elections, the great uncertainty in politically fractured country"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brussels – Tomorrow, Germany will vote in what looks like the least “German” elections in the country’s recent history<\/strong>. Once considered an emblem of political stability<\/strong>, Europe’s economic locomotive\u2014in the doldrums for two years\u2014now faces a strong fragmentation\u00a0compared to its traditional political history, essentially based on the confrontation between centrists and social democrats<\/strong>, with the nationalist ultra-right on the rise and the radical left regaining ground, while the liberal centre is in danger of evaporating.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, February 23, voters will go to the polls to renew the Bundestag<\/i><\/strong>, the lower house of the Berlin legislature. After reviewing the issues at the heart of the campaign<\/a>, Eunews<\/i> brings you an analysis of trends affecting Germany’s major parties<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The next Bundeskanzler<\/h3>\n

There is no doubt that the so-called Union parties will emerge victorious from the ballot box: the Christian Democratic Union<\/strong> (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands, CDU<\/strong>) and its Bavarian twin, the Christian-Social Union<\/strong> (Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern,<\/em> CSU<\/strong>). Polls in hand, the Union\u00a0has\u00a0around 30 per cent<\/strong> of support, in a\u00a0 28 to 32 per cent range depending on the surveys. Therefore, it is basically guaranteed that the next federal chancellor (Bundeskanzler<\/strong>) will be Friedrich Merz<\/strong>, the leader of the CDU, who was led by Angela Merkel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

During the latter’s 16-year “reign” (from 2005 to 2021) and marked by a centrist positioning of the party<\/strong>, Merz (whose vision is decidedly more conservative<\/a>) stepped away from politics to focus on law practice<\/strong>\u00a0(with a switch to BlackRock between 2016 and 2020).\u00a0He\u00a0rejoined the Cdu scene in 2018<\/strong>, when “Mutti” announced her retirement but preferred\u00a0Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer<\/strong>\u00a0for the succession.<\/span>\u00a0In 2020, he again lost the duel at the top of the party to\u00a0<\/span>Armin Laschet<\/strong>, who, however, resigned in December 2021 following the\u00a0<\/span>election defeat that condemned the\u00a0<\/strong>Union<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0to opposition<\/strong>\u00a0in the legislature that is about to end.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Merz\"<\/a>
The leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz (photo: John McDougall\/Afp)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At that point, Merz takes over the helm<\/a>. Under the leadership of the 69-year-old from Brilon, the CDU underwent a profound transformation, abandoning traditional Christian Democratic positions and moving decisively to the right<\/strong>, especially on the issue of immigration.\u00a0It was a strategy that ended up\u00a0at the centre of controversy<\/strong>\u00a0in late January, when the future chancellor\u00a0came forward<\/a>\u00a0and, taking a big political risk, tried to\u00a0play hand-in-hand with the xenophobic ultra-right<\/strong>\u00a0to get the\u00a0Bundestag to pass a bill that would\u00a0restrict illegal immigration<\/strong>.<\/span>\u00a0That attempt later failed by a handful of votes<\/strong>, but Merz’s move caused an earthquake in German public opinion<\/a> provoking a massive street mobilization<\/strong>, with participatory marches protesting the collapse of the so-called “cordon sanitaire<\/strong>” (Brandmauer) and the centrist consensus<\/strong> in Berlin.<\/p>\n

The collapse of the Social Democrats<\/h3>\n

A veritable debacle<\/em> awaits instead the Social Democrats of the SPD<\/strong> (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands), who are going for the worst result in a national election since World War II<\/strong>.\u00a0After coming in first (narrowly) four years ago with 25.7 per cent, the party of outgoing Chancellor\u00a0<\/span>Olaf Scholz<\/strong>\u00a0is now\u00a0<\/span>between 15 and 16 per cent<\/strong>\u00a0of the vote, which will result in an inglorious third place for Germany’s oldest political force.<\/span><\/p>\n

Socialists are paying for the less-than-stellar experience of the “semaphore coalition<\/strong>” (composed of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP liberals) that has ruled the country since 2021. Its member parties spent much of the time bickering over what measures to take, mainly because of differences in views between the progressive partners and the liberals<\/strong>, inhibiting executive action. Until the table was broken when, in early November, the FDP pulled out<\/a> effectively pulling the plug on the coalition.<\/p>\n

\"Olaf<\/a>
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (photo: European Council)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The SPD is also going through a deep leadership crisis<\/strong>.\u00a0Scholz has lost much of the personal political capital he had when he took office, and currently, only 17 per cent of voters\u00a0<\/span>would like it to stay<\/a>\u00a0in the chancellorship (compared with 33 per cent who would like Merz and 24 per cent who would prefer the environmentalist candidate\u00a0<\/span>Robert Habeck<\/strong>).<\/span><\/p>\n

For a short time, the option of replacing Scholz with Boris Pistorius<\/strong> as chancellor candidate seemed to have gained momentum.\u00a0The outgoing defence minister has long been the politician with the\u00a0highest personal approval rating in Germany<\/strong>\u00a0(steadily above 50 per cent) but\u00a0stepped aside,<\/a>\u00a0withdrawing from the race.<\/span>\u00a0According to analysts, Pistorius’s popularity stems at least in part from the outspoken positions he has taken in favour of Ukraine, while Scholz, on the contrary, has often <\/span>hesitated<\/strong><\/span> about providing support to Kyiv<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The sprint of the ultra-right<\/h3>\n

However, beyond the performance of the two largest parties in the German mainstream, the indisputable political fact of this election round will be the sprint<\/strong>\u00a0of the post-Nazi ultra-right<\/strong> of Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland (AfD)<\/strong>. The party led by Alice Weidel<\/strong> (nominated as the candidate for chancellor in mid-January<\/a>) and Tino Chrupalla<\/strong> is credited with\u00a020\u201321 per cent<\/strong> of support: a historic record that would lead it to come second for the first time<\/strong> since it was founded in 2013.<\/p>\n

The ultranationalist and pro-Russian has long been in the crosshairs<\/a> formation of the Civilian Intelligence Service (BFV)<\/strong> as a “suspected right-wing extremist organization<\/strong>.” If the investigation is successful, it should be banned as unconstitutional<\/strong> (although this scenario is riddled with a number of both legal and political problems).<\/p>\n

The AfD’s main workhorse is its\u00a0tough stance on immigration<\/strong>\u00a0(from “remigration” plans to leaflets\u00a0advocating the deportation of illegal immigrants<\/a>), which has become a\u00a0hot topic in the election campaign<\/strong>\u00a0following a series of deadly attacks in the country in recent months. Moreover, intransigence on the issue of reception and border control has also made inroads at the centre of the political spectrum, resulting in a\u00a0generalised tightening of positions<\/strong>\u00a0for all parties with the sole exception of the radical left.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Alice<\/a>
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel (photo: Attila Kisbenedek\/Afp)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Recently, the xenophobic and nativist formation seems to have managed to shake off the image of “pariah”<\/strong>, ending up being legitimised both domestically and abroad. In addition to the aforementioned move by Merz, which opened a breach in the Brandmauer<\/strong> through which the ultra-right had been excluded for 80 years from the ranks of parties with which it was acceptable to cooperate at the Bundestag<\/i> (although in\u00a0regional governments the AfD already cooperates with the CDU in several L\u00e4nder), Weidel & Co. have been incensed<\/a> by several figures in the new U.S. administration<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump<\/strong>‘s right-hand man, the “techno-oligarch” Elon Musk<\/strong> (who performed a double Nazi salute at his boss’s inauguration just a month ago), publicly stated<\/a> that “only the AfD can save Germany<\/strong>” and then peeped in via video link to a party election rally claiming among other things that Germany “must move beyond” guilt over the horrors of Hitler’s dictatorship<\/strong>. Last week, U.S. Vice President James David Vance<\/strong> urged European leaders<\/a> to abandon the practice of cordons sanitaire (described as undemocratic) before engaging in a bilateral with Weidel<\/strong> (simultaneously refusing to meet with Scholz).<\/p>\n

But the AfD is also gaining credibility in Europe. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n<\/strong> greeted Weidel in\u00a0Budapest<\/a> a few days ago, declaring that the young woman embodies “the future of Germany<\/strong>.” And\u00a0according to rumours<\/a>, the party’s delegation to the EU Parliament may soon rejoin the Patriots<\/strong>. The last word will be up to the lepenists of the Rassemblement national<\/strong>, who had expelled the Germans from the previous far-right group in Strasbourg, Identity and Democracy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The green wave undertow<\/h3>\n

According to projections, the wooden medal will go to the Greens (B\u00fcndnis 90\/Die Gr\u00fcnen)<\/strong>, the junior partner of Scholz’s current minority government. After racking up nearly 15 per cent in the past legislative elections (an all-time high in federal consultations), the ecologists are now around\u00a013\u201314 per cent<\/strong>.\u00a0In November, the party\u00a0<\/span>chose as the candidate<\/a>\u00a0for the role of head of the executive the outgoing vice chancellor and Minister of Economy\u00a0<\/span>Robert Habeck<\/strong>, one of the best-known faces of the\u00a0Gr\u00fcnen<\/span>,<\/em>\u00a0along with the current foreign minister,\u00a0<\/span>Annalena Baerbock<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The environmentalist’s Spitzenkandidat\u00a0ended up on the gridiron<\/a> during his tenure in government for what critics denounce as an ideological approach to the climate transition<\/strong>, neglectful of both the social costs to the most disadvantaged segments of the population and the economic costs to the business community.<\/p>\n

\"Robert<\/a>
German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck (photo: Valeriano Di Domenico via Imagoeconomica)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But after the exploit<\/i> of the Greens at the 2019 Europeans (when they grossed 20.5 per cent), their political proposals now seem to have gone out of fashion<\/strong>. Accomplices also are a series of exogenous shocks, from the large-scale invasion of Ukraine to the uncontrolled rise in energy prices, from the inflationary spiral to the recession that has gripped the country for a couple of years now (partly due to the deep\u00a0crisis in its automotive<\/i> sector).\u00a0And the tombstone on the green deal made in Germany<\/strong> seems destined to be put there<\/a> by Merz himself.<\/p>\n

The resurrection of the Left?<\/h3>\n

Another interesting trend that has emerged in recent weeks is the apparent “resurrection” of Die Linke<\/strong>.\u00a0The party of the radical left was given\u00a0moribund for some time<\/strong>, so much so that many pollsters did not think it was capable of crossing the 5 per cent mark.<\/span>\u00a0Also weighing on the decline in popularity had been the exit of Sahra Wagenknecht<\/strong>, one of the formation’s best-known faces, in the fall of 2023. Yet, after a long desert crossing, the Linke has suddenly returned to centre stage<\/a> thanks to a surge in membership and approval ratings, especially among the younger electorate. Leading this upswing were the two leading candidates, Heidi Reichinnek<\/strong> and Jan van Aken<\/strong>. Reichinnek, who has a significant presence on social media, is the group leader at the Bundestag, and she got noticed by the general public<\/a> when she harshly attacked Merz<\/strong> for his flirtation with the AfD.<\/p>\n

\n

Merz committed an unprecedented breach of taboo in the Bundestag today and effectively opened the door to power for the AfD.<\/p>\n

After today, everyone in the country knows that the CDU cannot be relied on to keep the AfD out of power.<\/p>\n

But the firewall… pic.twitter.com\/5Vb9yI2fLB<\/a><\/p>\n

– The Left in the Bundestag (@dielinkebt) January 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The two have breathed new life into the party through the so-called “Operation Silver Hair<\/strong>.” A reinvigorated political message\u2014focusing mainly on anti-fascism, combating climate change, the rising cost of living, and pacifism\u2014but without Renzian-style “scrapping.” On the contrary, some of the\u00a0Left’s historic and most recognisable figures\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>were brought back to the forefront.\u00a0The outcome of this strategy (and of the\u00a0<\/span>end of infighting<\/strong>\u00a0after Wagenknecht’s departure) was a leap in support, from around 4.5 per cent to a\u00a0<\/span> 6\u20139 per cent range<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

A risk of exclusion<\/h3>\n

We finally find two smaller parties in the (at least potential) relegation zone. The liberal-conservatives of the FDP<\/strong> (Freie Demokratische Partei), whose candidate is former Finance Minister Christian Lindner<\/strong>, are in free fall because of the toxic experience in the semaphore coalition, which imploded precisely because of disagreements on budgetary matters between the neoliberals and the two centre-left partners.<\/p>\n

Lindner’s party is a\u00a0<\/span>historic ally of German business<\/strong>. In\u00a0<\/strong>this very short (and equally tense) election campaign, it\u00a0<\/span>presented itself<\/a>\u00a0as an alternative to the former ecologist government cronies.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>The FDP’s classic political platform is that of the\u00a0<\/span>minimum state<\/strong>\u00a0(fewer taxes, less bureaucracy, free market). Still, it seems that not even Lindner’s flag-waving back to basics will be enough to get him over the mark as the most flattering projections give him<\/span>\u00a0at most 4.5 per cent<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Sahra<\/a><\/figure>\n

Bsw leader Sahra Wagenknecht (photo: John Macdougall\/Afp)<\/p>\n

Finally, on the far left end of the political spectrum is the personal party created by Sahra Wagenknecht<\/strong> as a rib of the Linke, the BSW<\/strong> (B\u00fcndnis Sahra Wagenknecht). Founded in September 2023 as a movement and institutionalised into a party in January 2024, this formation is considered<\/a> red-brown<\/strong> (or “conservative leftist”). This is because it combines#some claims\u00a0of the progressive tradition<\/strong> with other elements typical of the radical right<\/strong>, such as welfare chauvinism and a hard line on immigration. Like the AfD, the BSW favours an\u00a0approximation of<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Vladimir Putin’s Russia<\/strong>.\u00a0But if the red-browns are\u00a0<\/span>especially strong<\/a>\u00a0in the eastern regions of the former DDR, on a national basis, they too are\u00a0polled\u00a0<\/span>around 4.5 per cent<\/strong>, gambling their entry into parliament on a razor’s edge.<\/span><\/p>\n

How voting works (and some scenarios)<\/h3>\n

From a\u00a0technical viewpoint<\/a>, the German\u00a0electoral system is relatively complex<\/strong>, although some changes were introduced in 2023 that partially simplified it. On Sunday,\u00a0630 seats will be up for grabs in the Bundestag<\/strong>. Two years ago, this ceiling was set in the reform\u00a0<\/strong>to prevent the previously variable number of assembly members from increasing too much (there are 736 deputies in the outgoing legislature).<\/span><\/p>\n

Each voter has two votes available. The first vote (Erststimme<\/strong>) casts a preference for a candidate<\/strong> in his\u00a0uninominal constituency<\/strong>, one of the 299 into which the country is divided. The second (Zweitstimme<\/strong>) assigns a preference to a party-blocked list<\/strong>. This ensures proportional representation of the various parties, which obtain a number of seats in the House based on their percentage performance over the entire federal territory (proportional principle<\/strong>), but it also ensures that every constituency is represented (majoritarian principle<\/strong>). Of the elected deputies, half are determined with the Erststimme and half with the Zweitstimme.<\/p>\n

There is then a 5 per cent<\/strong>\u00a0bar threshold nationally. There are, however, two exceptions to this rule. One concerns legally recognized minorities<\/strong> (e.g., Denmark’s), while the other applies where a party obtains at least three individual mandates<\/strong> (Direktmandaten) in constituencies: if this happens, the party is entitled to elect representatives based on the percentage obtained with the Zweitstimme without taking into account, precisely, the bar (this is what happened in 2021 with the Linke, which obtained 39 deputies despite stopping at 4.9 percent at the federal level).<\/p>\n

\"Bundestag\"<\/a>
The Bundestag in\u00a0Berlin (archival photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is a\u00a0system that incentivises<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0formation of post-election coalitions<\/strong>\u00a0traditionally identified by the parties’ colours<\/strong>. Thus, for example, the street-light coalition (the first three-way coalition in German history) included the SPD (red), the FDP (yellow), and the Greens, but the combinations are different (and\u00a0are sometimes referred<\/a>\u00a0to as foreign flags).<\/span><\/p>\n

Numbers in hand, the options Merz can work on to reach\u00a0the absolute majority of 316 seats<\/strong> will involve, in addition to the Union, either Scholz’s SPD in the format of the “big coalition<\/strong>” (Gro\u00dfe Koalition) of Merkelian memory or Habeck’s Gr\u00fcnen for a black-green alliance<\/strong> (black is the colour of the CDU). At least on paper, for the time being, Merz has excluded wanting to form a coalition with the AfD<\/strong> (which would also offer a larger majority).\u00a0Its ability to manoeuvre will then be all<\/span>\u00a0the greater<\/a>\u00a0the worse the results of the parties currently struggling to pass the bar (FDP and BSW).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sunday’s election is crucial not only for Europe’s leading economy but also for understanding how Berlin will behave within the EU and in its international relations (starting with those with Ukraine). Here are the projections for each of the major German parties<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7876,"featured_media":417941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":""},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25681],"tags":[26267,26471,30559,28504,29715,29635,30560,26268,29085,28036],"class_list":["post-419490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-alice-weidel-and","tag-bundestag-en","tag-christian-lindner-en","tag-election-germany-2025-en","tag-friedrich-merz-en","tag-heidi-reichinnek-en","tag-olaf-scholz-en","tag-robert-habeck-en","tag-sahra-wagenknecht-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7876"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=419490"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":419499,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419490\/revisions\/419499"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/417941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=419490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=419490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=419490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}