{"id":461350,"date":"2026-07-29T11:59:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:59:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2026\/07\/29\/dal-conflitto-in-iran-inflazione-da-shock-dellofferta-su-cui-la-bce-puo-poco\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T12:39:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T10:39:22","slug":"iran-conflict-drives-supply-shock-inflation-largely-beyond-ecb-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2026\/07\/29\/iran-conflict-drives-supply-shock-inflation-largely-beyond-ecb-control\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran conflict drives supply\u2011shock inflation largely beyond ECB control"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brussels \u2013 \u201cEnergy prices are surging&nbsp;again, pushing up inflation in the euro area.\u201d Experts at the European Central Bank want to set the record straight on this point. However, the rise in prices and the resulting cost-of-living pressures are beyond the ECB\u2019s control. This is what emerges from the analysis, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/blog\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.blog20260729~7cbefa619b.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published on the ECB\u2019s blog<\/a>, of business expectations and perceptions of inflation. It is worth noting here that there is a difference between demand-driven inflation and supply-driven inflation. The main difference is that <strong>supply-driven inflation \u201cis often caused by developments that are largely outside a central bank\u2019s control,<\/strong>\u201d which therefore has more limited room for manoeuvre.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The ECB notes that price expectations among firms in the manufacturing, services, and construction sectors have \u201crisen significantly\u201d since the outbreak of war in Iran, and have since been \u201cabove pre-war level ever since.\u201d In this case, firms interpret the situation as \u201c<strong>largely stable demand-pull pressures<\/strong>,\u201d thereby attributing the rise in prices to the supply side. In particular, the experts stress that \u201c<strong>cost-push shocks drove up price expectations<\/strong> at the start of the war.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>What is worrying businesses, the ECB goes on to say, is primarily \u201cmaterials supply shortages,&nbsp;linked to higher energy prices,\u201d with consequent repercussions on production, particularly in energy-intensive sub-sectors such as chemicals, refined petroleum, and paper products.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Compared with the start of the war in Ukraine and the situation that ensued in 2022, \u201c<strong>the current rise in inflation has been driven, first and foremost, by a supply shock,<\/strong>\u201d experts at the European Central Bank stress. The new inflationary spiral \u201chas been fuelled by rising energy prices passing through the production chain, rather than by a broad-based surge in demand.\u201d Businesses understand this. They have been paying increasing attention to inflation risks and inflation itself, and their demand expectations have remained flat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts at the Eurotower: &#8220;The current rise in prices is being driven by developments that are largely outside the central bank&#8217;s control&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":494,"featured_media":461337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":""},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25705],"tags":[26112,26752,26151,26107,27569,33394],"class_list":["post-461350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-bce-en","tag-imprese-en","tag-bank-central-en-en","tag-inflation-en","tag-iran-in-2","tag-ue"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/461350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/494"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=461350"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/461350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":461351,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/461350\/revisions\/461351"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/461337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=461350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=461350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=461350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}