{"id":463276,"date":"2026-08-27T15:13:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T13:13:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2026\/08\/27\/hormuz-e-siccita-sulle-decisioni-della-bce-circa-i-tassi-di-interesse-pesa-linflazione-alimentare\/"},"modified":"2026-08-27T16:29:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T14:29:20","slug":"hormuz-and-drought-food-inflation-is-weighing-on-the-ecbs-interest-rates-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2026\/08\/27\/hormuz-and-drought-food-inflation-is-weighing-on-the-ecbs-interest-rates-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz and drought: food inflation is weighing on the ECB\u2019s interest rates decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brussels \u2013 In July, interest rates remained unchanged<\/a> because conditions did not call for intervention in one way or the other. However, the European Central Bank’s decision at the end of July was influenced by a hot summer, though not yet as scorching as it later became. In other words: while the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz was taken into account, the effects of the extreme weather could not be fully factored in. Therefore, as stated in the minutes of the meeting published today (27 August), all members of the Executive Board<\/a> of the ECB made it clear that \u201cthe September meeting will provide the next opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of the inflation outlook and related risks, taking into account developments in the conflict in the Middle East.<\/strong>\u201d <\/p>\n

So far, there have been no surprises compared with what ECB President Christine Lagarde stated at the end of the July meeting. However, the minutes reveal the reason for this postponement: the members of the Governing Council agreed that \u201cfood price trends would be monitored closely in the September projections and beyond.<\/strong>\u201d <\/p>\n

The fear in Frankfurt is that rising energy prices could coincide with a general rise in food prices, leading to a more severe inflationary spiral that is harder to contain. As early as July, it was observed that global food prices<\/strong> remained \u201csensitive to changes in energy supplies, fertilisers, and weather events.<\/strong>\u201d It is here, in this last passage, that one can better understand the decision not to change interest rates: however hot Europe was on 23 July, the effects of the heat were still only partial. <\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2026\/06\/25\/ecb-flags-high-energy-prices-this-summer-and-inflation-above-target-through-mid-2027\/ <\/p>\n

In any case, as a result of the energy price surge caused by the US war in Iran, food prices had \u201crisen sharply since the June meeting, driven by sub-components such as coffee and cocoa.\u201d In this context, the minutes of the July meeting state: \u201cLooking to the medium term, various factors could push up food price inflation again, including the impact of the energy shock feeding through to agricultural input costs, including transport costs, as well as the weather-related effects of recent heatwaves<\/strong> and the onset of El Ni\u00f1o.” <\/p>\n

In a nutshell: what US President Donald Trump has failed to achieve with the war in Iran, in which he has become bogged down, is now in serious danger of being brought about by climate change. The link between climate and food is being considered in Frankfurt for at least a couple of reasons. Firstly, \u201cthey could be an indicator of the indirect effects of the energy shock, although it was welcomed that, for the time being, energy inflation and food inflation were not moving in the same direction\u201d. <\/p>\n

Secondly, the ECB\u2019s Governing Council notes that the costs of food and drink are \u201chighly visible to consumers\u201d<\/strong> and, for this reason, food prices play \u201can important role in shaping perceptions and expectations of inflation and could exert some pressure on wage demands.\u201d <\/p>\n

What virtually everyone around the European Central Bank\u2019s Governing Council table seems to agree on is that \u201cextreme weather events and, more generally, the ongoing climate and natural crises, could push food prices up more than expected.<\/strong>\u201d This point was highlighted back in late July. September will therefore be the time to review the situation, not only in terms of the war in Iran but, above all, the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Any potential\u2014and anticipated\u2014rise in interest rates hinges on this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s not just Trump and his war in Iran; the minutes of the July meeting highlight how the weather is one of the key factors to be taken into account when making decisions going forward<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":494,"featured_media":463249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":""},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25709,25705],"tags":[26112,26050,26950,33392,26151,25828,29736,26107,26153,27337],"class_list":["post-463276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrifood-en","category-business","tag-bce-en","tag-climate-en","tag-drought-en","tag-energia","tag-bank-central-en-en","tag-eurozone-en","tag-broth-en","tag-inflation-en","tag-tassi-di-interesse-en","tag-middle-east-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/463276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/494"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=463276"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/463276\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":463277,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/463276\/revisions\/463277"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/463249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=463276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=463276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=463276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}