{"id":469819,"date":"2026-11-02T10:54:54","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T09:54:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/?p=469819"},"modified":"2026-11-02T10:54:54","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T09:54:54","slug":"canadian-dry-epochal-search-of-content","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2026\/11\/02\/canadian-dry-epochal-search-of-content\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Dry, the epochal in search of content"},"content":{"rendered":"

Montr\u00e9al, Friday 30 October. Mark Carney at the podium: \u201cToday we move toward associate membership for Canada and we launch a new alliance for the future.\u201d Beside him Ursula von der Leyen and Ant\u00f3nio Costa, who speaks of a Canada \u201ca step away from full membership\u201d. The tone is epochal<\/strong>. The texts, less so. On the table there is little, but it is concrete. A digital trade agreement, with simpler payments for selling online in Europe. The EIB, able to finance critical raw materials projects in Canada. Ottawa inside the European loan for Ukraine, \u20ac500 million initially. European supercomputers for Canadian researchers. Erasmus+ by mid 2027, Horizon Europe as a full member in 2028. And, thanks to CETA, Canada comes within the European preference for public procurement in steel, cement, aluminium, cars and net zero technologies. A TTIP in miniature, had the negotiation with the US not failed in 2016 and been buried in 2017. Missing, in the report of the bilingual (French and English) news agency Canadian Press: defence and liquefied natural gas. On the deforestation regulation and the carbon border levy the talks are \u201cadvanced\u201d but unresolved. Calendar<\/strong>: in March the Commissioners in Canada<\/strong>, in June Carney at the European Council and the closing of the negotiations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

As already reported by eunews.it, \u201cEU and Canada come as close as possible, to keep Trump away<\/a>\u201d. The most useful of the many pieces that have appeared, because it separates the label from the substance. \u201cAssociate member\u201d does not appear in the joint communiqu\u00e9; what appears is the commitment to define, by the 2027 summit, a closer association short of full membership. Eunews then isolates the most concrete content, the European preference extended to Canada, and closes with the right unknowns: an election year in Europe, the quarrel over the multiannual budget that starts in 2028, enlargement. Among the many, an account that does not let itself be enchanted by the podium, by the photographs of von der Leyen and the fluttering of flags.<\/p>\n

It may well be \u201cepochal\u201d, but Germany, France, Italy and Greece have asked for the expression to be clarified before they endorse it; Italy<\/strong>, it seems, has reservations about the chapter on competitiveness and technological sovereignty<\/strong>. The Centre for European Policy Studies points out that \u201cassociate member\u201d does not exist in the Treaties. Bloomberg, on the eve of the summit, says: \u201ccloser, but without associate membership\u201d. Vina Nadjibulla, co-founder and CEO of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft in Ottawa, says: \u201cThe term does not matter; the projects do.\u201d The frame is epochal, but the picture is yet to be filled in.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, French-speaking Canada reads the summit through the seating plan<\/strong>. The government of the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, accuses Ottawa of having gagged him; Carney replies that he was invited to the dinner and declined (CTV Montr\u00e9al, 27 October). In September the then premier, Christine Fr\u00e9chette<\/strong>, had said<\/strong>: \u201cQuebec cannot be a mere spectator<\/strong>.\u201d The Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois wants the promised parliamentary vote and a negotiation with the province. Underneath, the exposed nerve: supply management, the quotas for milk and cheese. Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet recalls that European cheese has already taken shelves that would have gone to local producers.<\/p>\n

And some local boomer, of days gone by, may have heard echoing the words Vive Montr\u00e9al! Vive le Qu\u00e9bec! Vive le Qu\u00e9bec libre! Vive le Canada fran\u00e7ais!<\/i><\/em>\u00a0…et: vive la France!<\/i><\/em>, pronounced by Charles de Gaulle sixty years ago from the balcony of Montr\u00e9al\u2019s city hall during his visit to Expo 67. It was then that controversy overwhelmed the G\u00e9n\u00e9ral<\/i><\/em>, who cancelled the rest of the visit, which included the more official part in Ottawa… This time all that is needed is a factual, secularised acknowledgement. And a correct assessment of the agreement; which, however, is neither easy nor to be taken for granted.<\/p>\n

The Globe and Mail in Toronto headlined the commitment to an ever-closer association<\/i><\/em>, a formula borrowed from the European Treaties. A reader of The Hub observes that CETA, the acronym in use for the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, ten years on still lacks ten ratifications, and that the association will bring \u201cconditions\u201d and regulatory alignment. Bob Rae<\/strong>, a former premier of Ontario<\/strong>, for his part, commenting on doubts arriving from Washington, insisted with bravado<\/strong>: \u201cPresident Trump does not control our policy<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is in Calgary that the tone changes. The Western Standard, a conservative outlet of the West, has followed the European quarrel over the term and the German push to remove it. Pierre Poilievre reassures his most finicky voters: Canada will never be \u201cthe 28th state of the European Union\u201d, no EU taxes, laws or open border rules. No editorial from Calgary\u2019s big dailies has surfaced. The absence speaks: liquefied gas and defence, the chapters that interest Alberta most, do not appear in the report. Without those two items, what sort of deal is it? CETA reloaded?<\/p>\n

From the Pacific coast and the country\u2019s far north, silence. Vancouver looks west: LNG Canada\u2019s gas leaves for Asia, Europe is a chapter, certainly not the overall narrative. No notable positions have emerged from British Columbia. In the North the Arctic is on the agenda but ends up in \u201cfurther talks\u201d on the Arctic and borders; the Inuit have long asked for more weight in the defence of the region. They see no point of contact with European realities.<\/p>\n

A different perception in Washington and New York<\/strong>. Politico, from Washington, has supplied the key: now or never. The Washington Post, on 29 October, headlines the alliance pushed \u201cagainst Trump threats\u201d. Newsweek, from New York, reports the president\u2019s warning: if he judges it hostile, \u201cvery serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things\u201d; the White House has added nothing else. The Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen: pushing Canada away will hurt New Hampshire. In Chicago and San Francisco no comment is to be found. The reading, not even much between the lines, is only one: Trump threatens, the allies organise.<\/p>\n

US market isolated? Not yet<\/strong>. The United States absorbs between 72 and 80 per cent of Canadian exports, depending on source and year; Europe 4. On Tuesday 3 November America votes in the midterms<\/strong>. The Euroscope data that this outlet published on 27 October say Europeans are rooting for the Democrats. But Politico recalls it: even if he lost Congress, Trump keeps his tariff powers<\/strong>. And the oversized Sharpie to sign them ostentatiously.<\/p>\n

The agreement has intrinsic validity. CETA, which is purely economic and commercial, abolishes tariffs on up to 99 per cent of goods; between 2016 and 2025 trade in goods rose by 76 per cent, trade in services by 90. Digital, minerals and research are bricks. The new framework is exquisitely, and only, political, but has the power to reinvigorate CETA, according to many observers in Brussels\u2019s European Quarter. Including some of those on the US trade mission.<\/p>\n

Now the counterfactual. Had we pursued TTIP<\/strong>, with due caution on food standards and arbitration<\/strong>, we would be speaking to Washington today from a different position<\/strong>. The old estimates by the Atlantic Council (2014), on the American side: cars up to 650 per cent more exports, about $85 billion; metals up 125; processed foods up 102; $198 billion of additional exports over fifteen years; almost 740,000 jobs. On the European side, CEPR (2018): EU GDP up 1.3 per cent, US up 0.7, almost all from non-tariff barriers. These are projections of their time, not facts. But they show where interdependence would have been densest: cars, metals, agrifood, chemicals, machinery, insurance. The very supply chains on which Washington now batters us with tariffs.<\/p>\n

He, the Chief Diplo-something who knew, knows and will know, says without dismay and with the optimism of diplomacy: \u201cWe have Turnberry; it is approved by the European Parliament with conditions, true<\/strong>. It is a truce, not a treaty<\/strong>.\u201d Turnberry, Scottish coast, 27 July 2025. At the golf resort owned by Donald Trump, the American president and Ursula von der Leyen strike a pact that serves one purpose only: not to fight a tariff war. Not an Atlantic common market, an armistice. Then the long European road, among Commission, Parliament and capitals, with heated debates; the regulation has been in force since 1 July 2026 and expires at the end of 2029. A truce with the date printed on it, which falls inside the same horizon in which Canada will be measured. And for many, Turnberry remains Ursula\u2019s indelible Canossa<\/strong>…<\/p>\n

Canada, though, does not replace America<\/strong>; the proportions remain what they are<\/strong>. It does, however, reopen the possibility of wide-ranging agreements<\/strong>. Mercosur has been provisionally applied since 1 May 2026, pending the opinion of the Court of Justice. Canada is under way. With the United States we must not let the next opportunity slip, perhaps under more palatable administrations.<\/p>\n

The condition is to distinguish the nation as economic power from the nation as political entity<\/strong>. They influence each other, and greatly. But supply chains, capital and patents outlive a president; his invective does not. Whoever confuses the two gets the timing wrong. What is needed is clarity and a medium-term vision, all the more in years of an accelerating economy<\/strong>. Montr\u00e9al is a good first step<\/strong>; the road, so as not to make it uphill, is decided now. Otherwise we shall be left with just two cans in hand: one of ginger ale and the other of beer, a Canada Dry, though American owned…, and a Budweiser.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Online resources were used to validate the sequences of dates, certify figures against public sources, check acts, people and companies, and ensure the formal correctness and format of the contents. The starting point remains a series of personal notes and a narrative originally drafted by the author.<\/i><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Alliance for the Future as read from Qu\u00e9bec to Calgary, the near silence of America days before the midterms, and the TTIP we never made<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7904,"featured_media":469823,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":""},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25711,25705,25681],"tags":[27687,25927,27047,36455,36456,33051],"class_list":["post-469819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions","category-business","category-politics","tag-alliance-en","tag-canada-en","tag-eu-en","tag-midterms","tag-ttip","tag-us"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7904"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=469819"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469819\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":469826,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469819\/revisions\/469826"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/469823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=469819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=469819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=469819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}