BusinessEurope publishes (slowing) EU growth estimates: +1.2 percent in 2024 and +1.8 percent in 2025

Brussels – In 2024, the European Union economy will grow by 1.2 percent, according to findings of the spring report published today (June 5) by BusinessEurope, the association of European employer confederations. Compared with the Autumn Economic Outlook, there was a 0.4-point downward revision to 2024 growth. The Eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 0.9 percent in 2024 and 1.4 percent in 2025. The publication of the report on the eve of the European elections (June 6-9) is also an opportunity for BusinessEurope to indicate its priorities to future policymakers.

The EU’s economic growth expectation for 2024 and 2025, when GDP is forecast to be up 1.8 percent, is confirmed. Driving growth should be increased private consumption and investments. In addition, in 2024, central banks, including the ECB, are expected to proceed with a policy of cutting interest rates that will have positive effects on the market. The report also points to an improving trend for inflation, declining from 2.9 percent in 2024 to 2.3 percent in 2025.

On the eve of the vote for the European Parliament, BusinessEurope urged future policymakers to take a path to improve the competitiveness of the European market. With this in mind, the report published by Enrico Letta and the one expected from Mario Draghi at the end of June should act as the guiding star. In addition, the EU should also strengthen and, at the same time, streamline its decision-making process. BusinessEurope also mentions the structural challenges facing European industry vis-a-vis global competitors, such as high energy prices. Protecting and safeguarding European production must be a task for the EU to ensure the economic security and prosperity of the system.

The data from the spring report were commented on by Markus J. Beyer, managing director of BusinessEurope, who said that despite the positive outlook, the future is uncertain: “EU industrial production remains just above pre-Covid levels, with capacity utilization at its lowest level since 2013 (if we exclude the Covid period).” Beyer believes the next legislature will play a key role in shaping Europe’s future, especially if it can “put competitiveness and the single market at the center of the next policy cycle and develop a long-term European growth strategy.”