Brussels – Not even 20 days after the European vote that enshrined the rise of the Rassemblement National, France is going back to the polls to chase away the bogeyman of the far-right in power in the National Assembly. As early as tomorrow (June 29) in the overseas territories, then on Sunday in the hexagon, the game up for grabs is of historic proportions. On the night of the European summit in Brussels, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, made a final appeal to citizens: “We must fight with strength and be indignant” at those who, according to him, “betray what France is.”
On the liberal leader, who called for new elections after his Renaissance debacle in the June 9 European elections, harsh criticism has rained down for a decision that could effectively hand the French parliament to the radical right and force Macron into a very uncomfortable cohabitation with the executive capable of paralyzing French politics. In these three weeks of frantic campaigning, a lot has happened: the mobilization of the French left under the umbrella of the New Popular Front, in which France Insoumise, the Communist Party, the Ecologists, the Socialist Party, and Place Publique have converged, and the resounding endorsement of the Rassemblement National by the leader of the French moderate right, Eric Ciotti. For which the latter was first expelled from the Republican Party, only to be reinstated by a judge.
Even further to the right, and unable to forge an agreement with Marine Le Pen and French right-wing rising star Jordan Bardella, is Reconquête, the party of Éric Zemmour, which has decided to run alone. In the midst of this political earthquake is the presidential majority coalition, Ensemble, which seems to be relegated to the role of sparring partner in the current hyper-polarized French ecosystem.
According to the latest Ipsos poll, conducted June 21–24, the Rassemblement National candidates would be firmly in the lead with 36 per cent of the vote, ahead of the New Popular Front at 29 per cent. The government coalition is about ten percentage points behind, at 19.5 per cent. Ciotti’s Republicans would be at 8 per cent and Reconquête at 1.5 per cent. However, in France’s uninominal majority double-round electoral system, the difference will most likely be made by the second call to the polls, scheduled for July 7.
With the double turn, some French observers believe many voters cast a belly vote in the first round and a head vote in the second, in which the voting directions of the big outsiders will be decisive. If the Republicans are split, with Ciotti and his loyalists ready to break the “cordon sanitaire” and support the far right and the other current that has decided to run against the Rassemblement National already in the first round, that 20 per cent of the electorate that is likely to vote for Macron’s coalition in the first round may make the difference. And on this, the President of the French Republic yesterday left no room for misunderstanding.
Asked whether he will give instructions for the second round in case of duels between Rassemblement National candidates and those of the leftist New Popular Front coalition, Macron said, “I asked for the political leaders to make their views very clear. And they will.” Accused by many on the French left of unfairly equating the radical left with the far right, the president clarified, “I had occasion to say that in the far left there were comments about anti-Semitism, violence, and anti-parliamentarism that I disapprove, that went beyond the Republican arc, but don’t create general confusion with all other political groups.”
On the other hand, Macron’s all-in may prove successful in the event that the majority candidates make it to the runoff: in that case, the president can rely on precisely that extreme polarization of the French political spectrum that is relegating him to the margins. That is, on the fact that right-wing voters faced with the choice between the centre and the left will vote for his candidate, and at the same time, New Popular Front voters will vote for the centrist candidate and not the one of the extreme right.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
