German exports in free fall: alarm from the ifo Institute

Brussels – German exports are in free fall, with expectations falling to minus 6.3 points in September, compared with minus 5.2 in the previous month, according to the ifo Institute’s Export Expectation survey, which monitors and assesses the sector’s current and future developments.

“The export industry is going through a weak phase,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at the ifo Institute. The metal and automotive industries, in particular, expect significant losses. 

“Industry is complaining about a lack of orders from abroad,” Wohlrable added. In fact, the indicator has steadily decreased since June 2024. The only sectors showing growth are related to food and beverages, while the chemical industry is stable. The survey results are alarming, as exports have always been the flagship of the German economy, especially for manufacturing industries.

The German economy as a whole is coming to a stop. The crisis is first and foremost a structural but also cyclical, according to ifo. Germany is in trouble. Too many changes are underway in a system struggling to find a balanced role. The economic research institute pointed in parallel to the deterioration of the “German business climate,” down 1.2 points from August and down for the fourth consecutive month. “The companies were particularly less satisfied with the current business situation. The German economy is coming under ever-increasing pressure,” ifo experts explained.

Europe’s Fit for 55 goals, with its consequences on the automotive industry, the backlash from the pandemic, digitization, changing demographics, and China’s evolving role in markets, are leaving Germany behind, with the export sector paying the price.