Lithuania turns left

Brussels – The game is not officially over, but the dynamics of the Lithuanian vote are already clear: the center-left will lead the next government. After the first round of legislative elections held yesterday (Oct. 13), the Social Democrats of the LDSP (the main opposition party) are in the lead. It will try to form an executive with other forces from the progressive camp. The cost of living has been at the heart of the campaign, while Vilnius’s strategic priority remains support for Ukraine.

At the close of the polls, the Social Democratic Party (LDSP) led by Vilija Blinkeviciute won 19.4 percent of the vote (18 seats), trailing by four points (but only by one seat) the Christian Democratic Union of the Fatherland (TS-LKD) party, which leads the current government — in coalition with centrists from the Liberal Movement (LS, which took 7.7 percent) and the Liberty Party (LP, which failed to pass the 5 percent threshold) — and expresses the outgoing premier Ingrida Simonyte.

Third place went to the populist Nemuno ausra (PPNA) party, which won 15 percent of the vote and 14 representatives. The other two formations that passed the bar were the center-left Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL, 9.2 percent, and 8 seats) and the center-left Union of Greens and Peasants (LVZS, 7 percent, 6 elected).

Social Democratic leader Blinkeviciute announced that she would initiate coalition negotiations with the DSVL and LVZS to create a center-left executive. “I think our voters, our people, have said that they want change,” she said to the press, commenting on the ballot box result. The election campaign focused mainly on the exploding cost of living and rents, with inflation reaching record levels in the past two years. Among the issues most felt by the electorate were also social services provided by the state, such as education and health care. The LDSP has proposed increasing taxes on the better-off segments of the population to fund expanding social programs.

In foreign policy, however, the line of the next executive will remain the same: unconditional support for Kyiv and increased military spending since Vilnius (one of NATO’s eastern members) feels particularly exposed to pressure from Moscow, bordering both the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, a de facto satellite of the Kremlin. According to surveys, three out of four Lithuanians believe that Russia may attack their country in the near future.

In the Lithuanian electoral system, 70 of the 141 seats in the Seimas (the unicameral legislature) are chosen every four years through a proportional vote on a single national constituency. The remaining 71 are allocated through as many uninominal constituencies in which, if no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, there is a ballot between the first two finishers. Therefore, to know the exact make up of the next Parliament, it is necessary to wait for the second round, scheduled for October 27, in which many of the remaining vacant seats at the level of uninominal districts will be up for grabs.