European defense and Ukraine, with fear of a rift with the US. The deal hanging in the balance at the EU leaders’ summit

Brussels – After weeks of agitated meetings in the most disparate formations — from those of the ‘coalition of the willing’ in the Elysee Palace and London to the visit of the heads of European institutions and some Western leaders in Kyiv and António Costa‘s bilateral meetings with EU heads of state and government — tomorrow (March 6) is the day of the extraordinary European Council. A key appointment to find out if and how the EU will react to Donald Trump’s diktats on Ukraine and defense, even if – a senior EU official suggests – the summit “will not be the end of the story.” However, it is still “weeks that can be worth decades,” as a senior EU source confides.

Indeed, “everything suggests that we will make more decisions in the coming months,” says a diplomatic source. However, in the meantime, it is essential to give a strong signal on two complementary pillars: European defense and Kyiv’s resistance. On the first point, the Rearm Europe plan and the letter with which Ursula von der Leyen outlined priorities to European leaders paved the way for an easy agreement among member countries. However, failure is around the corner for keeping unity at a decisive moment for Ukraine’s fate. On closer inspection, despite Costa’s ostentatious optimism – “if we don’t come to common conclusions, we don’t know what will happen because there has never been any talk of plan B,” diplomatic sources admit – Hungary and Slovakia have already come out in the open announcing that they will oppose any intention to increase military support to Kyiv ahead of negotiations.

The pro-Trump and pro-Russian Viktor Orban, who in a letter to Costa clearly outlined Budapest’s opposition to the principles enshrined in the summit’s draft outcome document, is expected in the evening at the Elysee Palace, where Emmanuel Macron will try in extremis to break the stalemate. To give an idea of the delicacy of the debate on Ukraine, suffice it to say that tomorrow, when the 27 address the issue related to Kyiv, only the leaders will sit at the table, without the usual accompaniment of the national diplomatic corps in Brussels. No “reporting” will be allowed or will cell phone use, diplomatic sources confide.

In response to US pressure to reach a quick ceasefire at the cost of ousting Kyiv and Brussels from negotiations, the European Council would like to reiterate the key points outlined in the draft conclusions. There can be no negotiations on Ukraine and European security without Ukraine and Europe’s involvement; a ceasefire “can only take place as part of a process leading to a comprehensive peace agreement;” any agreement must come with “robust and credible security guarantees for Ukraine;” and peace must respect Ukraine’s “independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

 Budapest and Bratislava risk pulling away even on these principles. Not to complicate matters further, the 27 member states, for now, will not go into details about what it means to provide security guarantees to Kyiv and avoid a repeat of the failed Minsk agreements of a decade ago. As long as it’s about strengthening Ukrainian defense capabilities, at least 25 agree. Make it a sort of “steel porcupine” capable – with financial, technological, and military support from the EU – of providing itself with the guarantees it needs. “I hope this will be made clear,” a senior official said. However, the second pillar in terms of guarantees is understanding “what the EU is prepared to do to contribute directly, particularly by deploying a mission” on the ground.

The Council says it is a “premature” reflection, which would only further bog down the debate at a time when a strong signal is needed. Moreover, Volodymyr Zelensky will deliver the signal directly, participating either in person or by video link in the leaders’ meeting. Several capitals, Italy foremost, will reportedly stress the importance of “maintaining the unity of the Western camp” without reaching irremediable rifts with Washington. Because it is “an illusion to be able to find solutions without the participation of the United States” or “to think that member states are capable of being on the ground alone without this kind of cover.” In this sense, the partial mending underway between the Ukrainian premier and Trump after the public clash in the Oval Office could affect the mood of the debate. However, Trump’s unpredictability is dangerous, and tomorrow morning, EU leaders could wake up to new biting statements from across the ocean.

As early as tomorrow, some member states may “say whether or not they are willing” to put military contingents on the table to safeguard future peace in Ukraine. In any case, on this point, the EU or NATO umbrella – which Putin strenuously opposes – could be replaced by that “coalition of the willing” that brings together some other Western partners and excludes the most reticent among the 27 member states. “It will certainly be discussed to start examining what role the EU wants to play in this possible coalition” — simple political endorsement, financial support, or beyond — a senior official explains. It is the sense of the debriefing scheduled for Friday morning in which Costa, von der Leyen, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas will take stock of the situation with the UK, Iceland, Norway, and Turkey.

EU united in defense: toward a green light for von der Leyen’s proposals

One diplomatic source speculated that the worst-case scenario could be that, due to tensions over Ukraine (which Costa could sidestep with a weaker declaration from the 25 member states or the European Council president himself), the table could collapse with leaders may even give up putting in writing conclusions on defense.  However, there is little room for disagreement on the need to “take the necessary actions to be more sovereign and autonomous” at this early stage. “We expect leaders to invite the European Commission to proceed very quickly, studying in more depth the proposals” presented by von der Leyen, they confirm in Brussels.

In essence, the five-point plan the EU executive president presented includes exemptions from the Stability Pact for defense spending, the creation of an EU facility for loans to member states for joint purchases worth 150 billion euros, the possibility of redirecting part of cohesion funds to military spending, the mobilization of private capital, and the expansion of the role of the European Investment Bank (EIB).

The “significant” proposals are still vague. More details will come with the European Commission’s presentation of the Defense White Paper on March 19. There, some critical issues may emerge, for example, on the terms under which it is possible to activate the safeguard clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, on which projects and for which expenditures it is possible to redirect Cohesion funds, whether or not it is possible to explore joint debt instruments. However, tomorrow, they should all be rowing in the same direction. Again, the conditional is a must: the Polish rotating presidency of the EU Council has summoned the diplomatic bodies of the 27 member states tomorrow morning before the start of the summit. There is only one item on the agenda: the conclusions of the European Council.