The EU depends on Pedro Sanchez: if his government falls in Spain, Socialists may break with the EPP

Brussels –If the Socialist-led government in Spain falls, and current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez steps down, a question arises about the continuation of the European legislative term. There is considerable discontent within the party, and above all, within the Socialist group in the European Parliament, which has only intensified following the EU executive’s backtracking on the anti-greenwashing law. There is increasingly less trust in the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and her political family, the European People’s Party, and the Spanish question risks igniting a spark that the EU cannot afford.

So far, the socialists have collaborated with the populars. Some say they lacked the courage for a confrontation, but the well-informed say it was pure politics. Raffaele Fitto was not favored for the role of executive vice-president. Still, in return, Ribera went to the Clean Transition, thus safeguarding the Green Deal that is dear to the socialists, and a mandate for Antonio Costa to head the European Council. Sanchez was the deciding factor, an element of guarantee, recognized in Brussels. Now that the Socialist leader is in crisis over the corruption scandal involving his party and the number three of the PSOE, they look to developments in the Member State, on which the European balance depends.

Should the Spanish socialists find themselves in the opposition at home, they are ready to do the same in Europe: this is the stark summary, also due to the conduct of the EPP and second thoughts, such as those on the fight against greenwashing, which concern legislation covered by agreements already reached and called into question. It could be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanches and EU commission president, Ursula von der Leyen [photo: la Moncloa]

The Spanish group in the European Parliament would be ready to turn the tables and lead their group colleagues in this new scenario. This is the political fact that emerges, and it is not insignificant because von der Leyen and the EPP could gain more weight in the Council in the event of a leadership change in Spain. Still, they would not have control of the European Parliament. Sovereignists (ESN) and patriots (PfE) would not have the same capacity to support the Commission in approving dossiers as sensitive and fundamental as the common budget.

Therefore, there is a final warning for von der Leyen and the EPP: keep a steady course, stop flirting with the far right and the eurosceptics, or the Populars will bear responsibility for the drift of the European legislature. At a time of renewed political strength for the EPP, Pedro Sánchez carries weight, as does European socialism. If he falls, the EU risks falling as well.

Teresa Ribera, the Spanish commissioner nominated by Sánchez, tries to calm tensions. The political mandate “we have received as a College of Commissioners, and the support for the President of the European Commission, are the main guide we must follow,” the Executive Vice-President for the Ecological Transition said. “This mandate is supported by the pro-European forces, including the Greens, the Social Democrats, the Liberals, and the European People’s Party, who have highlighted the importance of the green engine as a way to build competitiveness and social fairness,” she added. In this regard, “I believe this is what we are trying to do — and what we have been doing,” she said.