Zelensky: “It is not China’s interest for Russia to lose the war.” How Beijing reshapes balance of power

Brussels – “China promised not to sell arms, but I know one thing: China helps Russia, it does not help Ukraine. And it has no interest in Russia losing this war.” The Ukrainian president, Volodymir Zelensky, is certainly pleased and satisfied with the help received so far from his European partners, but he chooses the summit of EU heads of state and government to bring attention back to the real winner of this Russian-Ukrainian conflict now in its third year of fighting and the side effect of the Russian economic weakening resulting from sanctions: a Chinese strengthening in the face of which the Europeans will be able to do less and less. 

That the People’s Republic is helping the Russian Federation is a well-known fact, even in Brussels, where the Commission has expressed discontent with Beijing’s support for Moscow. However, Zelensky, in the press conference held after the leaders’ confrontation, touches on the real geopolitical crux of the matter: a new world order in which China gains power and makes Russia its minority partner.

Why does prolonging the conflict benefit China

As long as the war goes on, China is forced to focus its efforts and attention on Russia to divert them away from Central Asia. This allows China to expand its presence and influence, primarily in the economic and commercial spheres. The initiative known as the “Silk Road” aims precisely at bringing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan into the centre of China’s orbit. In essence, the more fighting the better. Furthermore, with European countries and the United States focused on Russia and concerned about how to counter it, attention is diverted from Beijing’s manoeuvres, which benefits from this “diversionary war”.

Why China does not want Moscow’s defeat

For Beijing, the current Russian leadership is a guarantee in anti-US terms. On the other hand, the Chinese President Xi Jinping has made no secret of wanting to continue to work closely with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in order to give a whole new impulse to the United Nations (where both China and Russia have the right of veto in the Security Council), strongly defending the rights and interests of the two nations, as well as those of the developing countries, in the face of unilateralism and bullying. Moreover, for China, its alliance with Russia is a central element in the economic confrontation with the United States, which the current Trump administration’s tariff policy has only revived. 

Certainly, a strong Russia is not in China’s interest, which is eager to increase its regional and continental weight. A military defeat of Russia, however, would create difficult-to-manage and govern scenarios. A new leadership would not necessarily guarantee privileged channels with Beijing, and an economy completely on its knees would become difficult to shore up. Better a weakened but stable Russia than a defeated Russia. In such a scenario, Moscow would be forced to rely more on Beijing, thus making the Russian Federation a “minor partner” in this coalition, seen as strategic in resisting Western powers, first and foremost the US.

Zelensky is therefore right when he points out that “the Chinese have no interest in weakening the Russians” to the point of putting them in a position to lose the war, “that’s why it helps them.” It is an accusation, but also a reminder to Europeans who, in the immediate future, risk having to reckon with a new China-driven Russia. The real paradox of the 19 sanctions packages risks being this: pushing Russia into the Chinese orbit, to the Chinese advantage. Ukraine can do little because “we have no permanent dialogue with the Chinese,” the Ukrainian president acknowledges. But the EU does not do much either, he criticises: “Europe should be stronger” towards China. 

EU leaders were expected to discuss the “China issue” at this summit, amid the debate over competitiveness and trade practices chosen by the Chinese government. Zelensky only makes the Asian country even more central.