Rutte, von der Leyen and the “change of mindset” of EU countries in NATO

Brussels – A year ago, the Atlantic Alliance seemed on the verge of imploding. At the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance delivered the first frontal attack on Europe launched by the new American administration. US threats to withdraw from NATO prompted European leaders—and the new Secretary General, Mark Rutte—to pledge to increase national military spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. Despite recent tensions over Greenland, the alarm seems to have subsided on the eve of the new edition of the Bavarian event.

Because—Rutte is convinced—Europe has done its homework in the meantime. Speaking at the Transatlantic Forum of the CSU (the sister party of Germany’s CDU active in Bavaria), the NATO Secretary General assured that there has been a “change of mindset” among the member countries of the Atlantic Alliance. This is particularly true of the 23 European Union Member States, out of a total of 32. “For decades, the United States complained that we were not spending enough on defence,” admitted the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, “but now Europe is really taking a step forward, assuming a leadership role in NATO and taking greater responsibility for its own defence.” For Rutte, the fact that “cooperation between the EU and NATO has never been as strong as it is now” is the panacea for all ills. Because “a strong Europe in a strong NATO means that the transatlantic bond will be stronger than ever,” said the Secretary-General. Thanks to Donald Trump, whom Rutte credited several times with forcing European leaders to face up to their responsibilities, and to Ursula von der Leyen, who is building much of her second term as President of the European Commission on the need to invest in defence.

Von der Leyen claimed credit for the change in mindset at the 12-star club: “Last year, we did more for defence in Europe than in the previous ten years,” she said. With the ReArm Europe plan, later renamed Readiness 2030, the European Commission aims to mobilise €800 billion for European defence by the end of the decade. Sixteen Member States have requested to activate the safeguard clause of the Stability Pact (Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia) to increase defence spending by 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) per year for four years without consequences, even if this brings the deficit above the 3 per cent of GDP limit set by the Pact. Also, sixteen Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia) have requested access to SAFE, the €150 billion defence loan fund allocated by the European Commission.

The latter, von der Leyen insisted, is “a very important programme” because it provides funding for “joint projects between Member States to fill gaps and strengthen our defence capabilities”. But also because “it clearly states that 65 per cent, or two-thirds of the products, must come from Europe or Ukraine, and can no longer be purchased from abroad.”

Von der Leyen and Rutte will bring these arguments to the attention of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Vance will not be present) and the audience at the Munich Security Conference. At the top of the conference agenda, in addition to the conflict in Ukraine, is the issue of strengthening European defences within NATO. Today’s speakers will include German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas. Tomorrow it will be the turn of Rubio, Volodymyr Zelensky, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen. More than 60 heads of state and government and around 100 foreign and defence ministers are expected in Munich.