The Netherlands, far right struggling to put together a coalition government

Brussels – Two months after the most disruptive election in the Netherlands’ recent history the process of forming a new government is still up in the air, despite the triumph claims of the anti-immigration, anti-Islamic, and strongly Euroskeptic far-right PVV (Party for Freedom). In a historically fragmented political landscape such as the Netherlands, the alliance framework rests on a delicate balance of understanding between parties. At the moment, the talks stimulated by PVV leader Geert Wilders are not yet pointing to the possible reaching of a compromise, with the two major liberal and centre-right forces, to support (in the majority or from outside) an executive led by a politician who is at least controversial and very similar in rhetorical style to former US president, Donald Trump.

Talks between Wilders’ formation, the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the New Social Contract (NSC), and the Civic-Farmer Movement (BBB) have been ongoing for a month and a half. The goal for the negotiator appointed by the leader of the PVV, Ronald Plasterk, is to reach 76 out of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer (the lower house of the Netherlands’ National Parliament), that is, to convince 39 more deputies to join the 37 newly elected nationalists to form a parliamentary majority to support Wilders’ cabinet. At the moment, only the agrarian populists of BBB are explicitly willing to join a right-wing coalition with their own 7 deputies, but eyes are rather on the choices of the two major centre-right parties: in case of a positive response, the VVD’s 24 and NSC’s 20 would bring the majority to a solid 88 MPs, leaving the coalition between the Labor Party and the Green Left GroenLinks (GL-PvdA) to lead the opposition along with 10 other smaller parties.

Resumed on Monday (Jan. 22), the four-party talks to form the new Dutch government are buttoned up and little is leaking out. But, ahead of the report to parliament due in early February, differences between the two centrist parties and the far-right party over respect for the rule of law and the national constitution have yet to be resolved, with the knot of anti-Islamic and anti-EU policies proposed to voters by the PVV. Wilders not only wants to “ban” mosques, Korans, and Islamic schools in the country and “expel” Dutch dual nationals who commit crimes but also to submit to citizens a referendum to leave the European Union. The aspiration for a “Nexit” (from Netherlands plus exit) in one of the founding member states of the Union worries not only pro-European parties in the Netherlands but especially the EU institutions in Brussels, because of the risk of the issue of leaving the EU becoming an electoral issue in the run-up to the European elections in June (even the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in Germany explicitly proposes the “Dexit”).

What happened in the last election in the Netherlands

According to the official results of the Nov. 22, 2023 vote, the far-right PVV party recorded the most convincing electoral test in its history, becoming the first force in Parliament and claiming the leadership of the Netherlands: with 23.5 per cent of the vote, it pulled 8 points ahead of the coalition between the Labor Party and the Green Left GroenLinks, led by the former head for the European Green Deal in the EU Commission, Frans Timmermans. Despite the growth in votes (+4.7 per cent) compared to the last election in 2021—when the two forces ran divided —the red-green coalition stopped in second place with 25 seats, behind the PVV’s 37.

Third place for the centre-right of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (which despite its name is not part of the European People’s Party family, but of the liberals of Renew Europe), with a 6.7 per cent drop and 10 fewer seats at the Tweede Kamer (from 34 to 24). Same fate for the liberals of Democraten 66 (from 24 to 9 seats) and the Christian Democrats of Christian Democratic Appeal (from 15 to 5). Exploit for the new centre-right New Social Contract formation, which placed fourth with 12.8 per cent and 20 seats. Also noteworthy was the advance of the Farmer-Citizen Movement —a populist party that advocates farmers’ interests—with 7 seats (+6 compared to last term).