Brussels – By calling for the easing of Western sanctions against Moscow, Vladimir Putin seems intent on creating another divide across the Atlantic. He is counting on Donald Trump‘s openings and hopes that Washington will start pressuring Brussels to relent, especially regarding the readmission of Russian banks into SWIFT. From the Old Continent, the will emerges to stay the course without yielding to Kremlin blackmail, but this is only the beginning of a particularly delicate geopolitical game.
Putin’s wishes
In the last few hours, there has been persistent talk of sanctions on Russia, especially those imposed by the EU and coded into 16 packages (the latest adopted on the third anniversary of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February). In a textbook move, Vladimir Putin shuffled the cards by bringing up, after the conclusion of the Riyadh talks with the United States, the issue of loosening some restrictive measures against Moscow.
In a communiqué in which the Kremlin gave its account of negotiations, it mentions several conditions set by the Federation to respect the truce agreed upon in Saudi Arabia. These conditions include, most importantly, the abolition of restrictions against the Rosselkhozbank (the national agricultural bank) and other banking and insurance institutions active in the trade in agribusiness and fertilizer, as well as those against producers, exporters, and shipowners, and their readmission on the SWIFT system, from which they were ousted in 2022.
Not so fast
SWIFT is a computer system that links over 11 thousand institutions in more than 200 countries worldwide, enabling them to exchange something like 50 million “financial messages” daily. The institution’s registered office is in La Hulpe, just outside Brussels, and is therefore subject to EU law, including the obligation to comply with sanctions decided by the EU.
According to the Kremlin’s narrative, the Federation’s July 2023 withdrawal from the grain deal brokered the year before by Turkey and the UN (that Black Sea Initiative that Moscow is now trying to put back on its feet) would be due precisely to the refusal of the Europeans and Joe Biden‘s US administration to reconnect Russian banks to SWIFT. However, now that the New York tycoon is back in the Oval Office, Putin is trying again. And this time, he may be doing better.
US president Donald Trump (photo: Brendan Smialowski/Afp)
Across the Atlantic, there are increasing rumors about a possible easing of the international sanctions regime against Russia in exchange for rapid entry into force of the partial ceasefire agreed upon in Saudi Arabia. Trump stated that “we are examining” the conditions posed by Moscow, effectively keeping the door open to Putin’s demands (as was already evident from the briefing the White House released after the Saudi talks). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also believes that “everything is on the table” and that an extended discussion has begun on how “to bring Russia back into the international system.”
European reactions
The problem is that these decisions are not (only) up to Washington. In Brussels, on the contrary, there is very little enthusiasm for proceeding down this road. The Commission and the 27 member states seem intent on following a firm stance against the Russian aggressor. It could be the much-desired moment for European chancelleries, where they can make their voices heard in the negotiations on the Ukraine war.
The EU executive warns that “one of the main preconditions” for reviewing or lifting sanctions – a decision that must be unanimous in the Council every six months (and already jeopardized more than once by Viktor Orbán‘s Hungary) – will be “an end to Russian aggression” and “the withdrawal of all Russian troops” from the former Soviet republic. After all, the restrictive measures aim at “maximizing the pressure” on Moscow: if they were ineffective, the Kremlin would not ask to remove them, the Berlaymont reasons. European Council president António Costa, today in Paris for the meeting of the coalition of the willing, agrees.
The best way to support Ukraine is to stay consistent in our objective to reach a just and lasting peace. This means keeping up the pressure on Russia through sanctions.
I will convey this message at today’s Leaders’ meeting on peace and security for #Ukraine organised by… pic.twitter.com/csBYcIbkr1
– António Costa (@eucopresident) ###§##
Among member states, the mood seems the same. Speaking from the Elysée Palace, Emmanuel Macron, alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, made it clear last night that “we will not lift sanctions,” arguing that it is still “too early” to make such a concession to the Federation. For the president of the Czech Senate, Miloš Vystrčil, agreeing to lift sanctions before Moscow stops bombing “is like a husband beating his wife and saying he will only stop when his wife stops asking for help.” In fact, under the impetus of some countries, particularly the Baltics, the EU is reportedly working on a seventeenth sanctions package.
However, the diplomatic game is complex, and the risk of stumbling is just around the corner. Brussels is aware that Putin’s demands could be instrumental, a trap set by the former KGB agent to the 27 member states. If the Europeans start discussing the renewal of sanctions, the internal divisions within the 27 member states will play into the hands of the Kremlin. Conversely, if the EU demonstrates unity in firmness, Moscow would have an excuse to continue the two-way talks, talking exclusively with the White House, as it would have “exposed” the bad faith of the Europeans.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
