ECB: Food inflation driven by a handful of items and extreme weather

Brussels – The increase in the food basket? It’s there, but it’s not what it seems. Following concerns about rising food inflation, the European Central Bank is trying to calm shoppers and families by publishing a dedicated analysis of food and drink price trends. Food has been a key factor in overall inflation, according to the analysis conducted by European Central Bank experts. However, they stress that the reality is different from how it is being interpreted. 

“Food inflation has remained elevated this year, but this is mainly due to only a few items,” the Eurotower experts say. According to data updated in November 2025, the food inflation rate fell to 2.4 per cent in the reference month, and on average for the year that just ended, the cost of food stood at 2.9 per cent. In this scenario, “the main drivers of the above-average inflation rate in 2025 are ‘coffee, tea and cocoa,’ ‘sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery’ (sweets) and meat.'” Of this list, “in recent months, coffee, tea, cocoa, sweets and meat accounted for over 50 per cent of the annual food inflation rate.” 

The ECB is therefore attempting to counteract this sentiment, which inevitably influences citizens’ and consumers’ choices, leading them to save – and therefore not invest in the economy – or to purchase products from non-European competitors. “Food price dynamics play a significant role in consumers’ inflation perceptions and short-term inflation expectations,” they acknowledge in Frankfurt, so much so that the ECB itself urges not to speak about inflation to avoid causing panic. 

https://www.eunews.it/2022/10/06/caffe-eurostat-quasi-un-lusso/ 

However, it is a fact that people pay particular attention to food price trends because they buy food frequently, and food expenditure “accounts for a sizeable share of their budgets and there is limited scope for substitution,” the ECB analysis admits, concerned that purchases for everyday meals “could disproportionately influence their beliefs about overall inflation.”

The resulting suggestion seems primarily ‘dietary’ and nutritional in nature: eat less sweets and less meat to avoid higher bills at the checkout.

Then there is the implicit suggestion not to be influenced by a few products. Among these recommendations, some are useful for politics and business: change course: change course. Because it is pointed out, “European meat (especially beef) prices have been driven by a continuing structural decline in supply, amid robust demand.” It is therefore necessary to build less and devote more land to grazing, and then act in line with the sustainability agenda, as food commodity prices – especially for coffee and cocoa – have been important factors in the rise in consumer food prices, reflecting extreme weather events. So much so that it is estimated that “the 2025 summer heat wave could increase unprocessed food prices in the euro area by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points after one year,” i.e., from this year onwards. 

Good news, however: the outlook is for a further slowdown in food inflation, supported in the short term by lower sales price expectations. The macroeconomic projections for the euro area prepared by ECB experts in December 2025 forecast a short-term decline in food inflation to 2.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, followed by moderate levels for the rest of the projection horizon.