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    Home » Diritti » Migrants: arrivals and asylum applications in the EU decline in 2025, but global fragility increases

    Migrants: arrivals and asylum applications in the EU decline in 2025, but global fragility increases

    The 19% decline in applications in 2025 is mainly attributable to tighter controls on migration routes and bilateral agreements, rather than improved security conditions in the areas of departure

    Caterina Mazzantini by Caterina Mazzantini
    3 March 2026
    in Diritti
    Migrazione frontiere pushback

    Refugees and immigrants looking for a new life. Column of migrants near the state borders. Fence and barbed wire. Surveillance, supervised. Abandon their lands for a better future. 3d render. Silhouette

    Brussels – 2025 saw a decline in asylum applications to European Union countries. The new report from the European Union Agency for Asylum, the EUAA, reveals that in 2025, Member States received 19 per cent fewer asylum applications than in 2024. 

    As can be seen from the Agency’s press release, this general decline was largely due to the lower number of asylum applications submitted by citizens of three of the top five countries in terms of the number of applications in the EU in 2025: Syrians, Bangladeshis, and Turks. In particular, the former submitted 72 per cent fewer applications than in 2024 following the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime: the authorities in most EU countries suspended the processing of Syrian applications, taking time to assess the future political situation. Meanwhile, compared to 2024, Bangladeshi citizens submitted 37,000 applications (15 per cent fewer), and Turkish citizens submitted 33,000 (40 per cent fewer). 

    On the other hand, there was an increase in asylum applications from Afghan and Venezuelan citizens. Afghans were the nationality with the highest number of applications in 2025 (117,000), with a one-third increase (+33 per cent) in the EU, which the agency attributed to an October 2024 ruling by the European Court of Justice confirming that the restrictions imposed by the Taliban on women constitute persecution. As a result, Afghan applications began to increase in 2025, peaking first in Austria and then in Germany. Similarly, applications from Venezuelans, the second-largest nationality group, increased (+23 per cent, reaching 91,000) due to growing tensions in their country, restrictive immigration policies adopted by the US administration, and the tightening of visa requirements imposed on Venezuelans in neighbouring Latin American countries. The vast majority of Venezuelans applied in Spain (94 per cent). In particular, within the EU, Venezuelans currently benefit from visa-free access to the Schengen area, as well as from an established Spanish practice of granting forms of national protection to Venezuelan applicants who do not meet the criteria for international protection. 

    The Agency’s report describes the EU’s asylum system as highly localised. Overall, five EU countries received 80 per cent of all asylum applications: Germany, which continues to receive the highest number of applications (20 per cent) but has seen a decrease of one third (-31 per cent) compared to 2024; France with a stable percentage of 19 per cent, Spain, which received 15 per cent fewer applications but still ranks third in terms of applications (17 per cent), and finally Italy, which recorded a 16 per cent decrease.
    The report emphasises that the decrease in asylum applications was determined less by changes in the countries of origin and more by changes in migration routes. According to the Agency, most of the decrease is attributable to strengthened border management under bilateral agreements. For example, coordination between Spain and Morocco has led to a 63 per cent drop in detections on the West African route; agreements along the Western Balkan route (including the new Frontex operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina) have reduced detections by 42 per cent; and finally, the renewal of the protocol between Italy and Libya and the new agreement between Italy and Turkey for joint coastguard operations have limited irregular departures. In the case of Syria, the regime change has caused a significant drop in applications (-72 per cent), but this should be understood as a temporary geopolitical shift rather than a definitive resolution of protection issues.

    In addition to data on arrivals, the report shows that despite the decline in applications in the EU, the global structural fragility has increased, and a representative indicator of this phenomenon is the 30 per cent contraction in global humanitarian funding, which reduces protection capacity in regions of origin, creating a risk of future migratory movements towards Europe. “Member States should take advantage of the significant room for manoeuvre offered by this decrease to focus on implementing the Pact, while adapting to international changes that could quickly reverse the recent decline in applications,” says EUAA Executive Director Nina Gregori.
    This is the European Union’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which will come into force in mid-2026. The report notes that the main objective of the Pact is to move towards “a more institutionalised and collectively managed migration management framework, ensuring greater predictability and resilience of the asylum system in the face of geopolitical shocks”. In fact, however, it provides for accelerated border procedures and greater restrictions on entry: from June 2026, mandatory procedures will be triggered to quickly assess whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible, particularly for applicants from countries with a recognition rate of 20 per cent or less. People subject to these procedures will not be formally allowed to enter EU territory until a decision is made, remaining in a vaguely defined territory legally outside the EU. Added to this is the revision of the concept of

    safe third country and the first EU list of safe countries of origin to declare more applications inadmissible and speed up returns. The controversial list of safe countries of origin currently includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco, and Tunisia. However, applying the concept of safe third countries, which allows Member States to deport asylum seekers to third countries with which bilateral agreements have been signed, could substantially increase the number of people subject to accelerated procedures.

    English version by the Translation Service of Withub
    Tags: agenzia europea per l’asilocrisi migrazionedomande di asilo

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