Brussels – Just when polls show the European far right on the crest of a wave ahead of the June elections, the success of the Identity and Democracy group could founder. The former chairwoman of the French far-right Rassemblement National party, Marine Le Pen, opened an initial rift with the German allies of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Only in the coming weeks it will be possible to see if this divergence is irremediable or can be resolved thanks to a longer-term perspective in Brussels: “We will have to discuss such important differences together and see if they have consequences for our ability to become allies in the same group” in the European Parliament, Le Pen warned yesterday (January 25) in a press conference in Paris.
Raising the perplexities of what is still the guiding star of the French far-right were reports about the “re-migration” plan –or large-scale expulsions of migrants with residence permits and asylum seekers and foreign-born German citizens -that emerged from an investigation of Correctiv on a late November meeting in Potsdam between prominent AfD figures (including the advisor to the co-chair, Alice Weidel), party funders, and some neo-Nazi figures. News that in Germany has led to the mobilization of one and a half million people in the squares of major cities, but which threatens to have a broader effect on the European political chessboard. “I totally disagree with the proposal that was reportedly discussed or decided at this meeting,” Le Pen made it clear, reiterating that the party of which she was president until 2021 (and a MEP from 2004 to 2017) defends “all French people, regardless of the conditions under which they acquired their nationality.” In no uncertain terms, Le Pen said she is in “clear opposition to AfD” on this issue: “We have never defended any kind of ‘re-migration,’ in the sense of withdrawing French nationality from people who have acquired it, even under conditions that we contest.”
The potential split between the two far-right parties could have far-reaching consequences for the entire Identity and Democracy European group in view of the June 6-9 vote and positioning and alliances in the next legislature. ID is the group with the smallest number of MEPs (58) to date, just above that of the Left (38). However, according to the latest projections of what could happen at the European elections, it could be precisely the one with the widest margin for growth, thanks to a potential increase of 40 seats, becoming the third largest group in the European Parliament (behind the European People’s Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, both of which are down slightly). Aiding the electoral surge would be precisely the German exploits of AfD – given today between 21 and 22 percent – and the growth of Rassemblement National – around 28 percent – despite the plunge of the League (from 28 to 9). 
However, the rift between the French and Germans could ruin this rosy scenario for the far right in Brussels. Eunews tried to contact ID’s leadership in the European Parliament, but at the time of publishing of this article, they did not comment on the risk of a split or the prospects of holding together the group with all its national members. An Afd breakaway seems unlikely – also but not only because of the treasure trove of seats it is seen bringing to the configuration of the next hemicycle – while a wink from Le Pen to the family of European Conservatives and Reformists headed by Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, cannot be entirely ruled out. “I can only rejoice to see that several forces that share the desire for nations to be able to retain their sovereignty are showing openness toward us,” the Rassemblement National leader commented at the press conference, responding to a question about her relationship with Meloni and the ECR: “Maybe we will be able to debate on common positions to defend in the European Parliament in the face of a Commission that seeks to gain more and more power without consulting the people.” According to the polls, the ECR group could undermine Renew Europe as the fourth force in the European Parliament (with 85 MEPs). However, it would make a huge leap–to the detriment of Identity and Democracy–if the French far-right were to join.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
