2040 climate target, Brussels to propose 90 per cent emissions reduction

Brussels – After 2030 and before 2050. The European Commission will propose a 90 per cent emissions reduction target for 2040 compared to 1990 levels, according to a draft version of the communication the Commission is expected to present on Feb. 6. “To put the EU on a firm path towards climate neutrality, this communication proposes a climate target for 2040 of a 90 per cent reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels,” reads the draft seen by Eunews.  Nothing unexpected. In recent months, Brussels has been under various pressures from nongovernmental organizations and even a group of 11 member countries to support a 90 per cent target, as also recommended by the European Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change.

The draft is still provisional and lacks many details— for example, it lacks levels of remaining EU greenhouse gas emissions in 2040 and removals from the atmosphere through carbon sequestration techniques from soil and industry. The proposal, the European Commission recalls in the communication, is based on a thorough impact assessment that examined in detail the implications of three target options for 2040: a reduction of up to 80 per cent from 1990 levels, consistent with a linear trajectory between 2030 and 2050; a reduction of 85-90 per cent, consistent with the level of net greenhouse gas reductions that would be achieved (-88 per cent) if the current policy framework were extended to 2040; and a reduction of 90-95 per cent.

Based on the assessment, which will accompany the communication, the Commission is expected to propose a target of 90 per cent. Energy efficiency, buildings and industry, then again agriculture and hydrogen transport: In the communication, the Commission identifies a group of 10 areas where it recommends that member states put in place “decisive measures for the implementation of agreed policies and is ready to work with member states, sectors, and social partners to facilitate the necessary actions and thus ensure predictability.”

The 28-page draft so far lacks the emissions figures the European Commission recommends to be cut in the various sectors, which will evidently be set in the coming days. The college plans to discuss and adopt the proposal next Feb. 6, from Strasbourg, together with the industrial strategy for CO2 absorption.

The 2040 climate target is the last, yet impressive, climate dossier to be proposed by the current commission, and to be implemented by the next one. The EU Climate Act (adopted in Brussels in 2021) commits the European Union, among other things, to a new interim target for 2040 and an indicative projected budget for the Union’s greenhouse gases for the period 2030-2050, that is, how much net greenhouse gasses can be emitted in that timeframe without putting the Union’s commitments at risk.

The climate law set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. 2040 is the second interim target before reaching carbon neutrality in 2050. After 2050, emissions are considered negative: that is, there can be no new emissions, but existing ones will remain. The timing of discussions for 2040 is closely linked to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement’s five-year ambition cycle, which sets a commitment to limit temperature increase to within 1.5°C.

All parties to the agreement are expected to start thinking about the next target this year and then communicate it before the COP29 (29th United Nations Climate Change Conference) to be held next year in Baku, Azerbaijan. EU scientific advisers have suggested a 90 per cent reduction in emissions (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040, publishing a study with recommendations on technological feasibility, environmental limits and risks, and international cooperation.