Portugal heading to the polls amid uncertainty of a majority moving towards the right

Brussels – All set for early legislative elections in Portugal that could hand the country’s government back to the center-right after nine years and, at the same time, bring the far right into a position of power for the first time since the fall of the dictatorship in 1976. After the surprise resignation at the end of last year of Socialist prime minister António Costa, two days ahead of the vote (Sunday, March 10), the Democratic Alliance bloc seems favored to lead Portugal towards European elections in June, although post-election alliance scenarios and the role that the right-wing nationalist Chega party will play remain uncertain.

According to surveys, the coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Popular Party (CDS), and Popular Monarchist Party (PPM) is expected to come in first with between 31 and 32 percent of the vote, just above the Socialist Party (SP) between 28 and 29 percent. More detached is Chega’s far-right with 17 to 18 percent, with an exponential increase compared with 2022 elections, when it registered 7.2 percent of the vote – and Liberal Initiative rising to 6 percent (from 4.9 two years ago). The Liberals are the primary interlocutor of the center-right bloc Democratic Alliance.  The possibility of forming a stable government without involving far-right nationalists, however, will depend on the electoral performance of the two forces.

Until now, the leader of the Social Democratic Party and candidate for the center-right bloc, Luís Montenegro, has opposed any alliance with the ultra-nationalists. However, considering the uncertainty of the outcome of the polls, the party President and Chega candidate, André Ventura, could become the needle in the balance for forming or supporting the next government in Portugal. In the 2022 elections, surveys gave a neck-and-neck battle between the Socialists and the center-right. However, at the polls, the incumbent premier Costa won by 12 percentage points and then gained an absolute majority in Parliament. This time, however, one cannot underestimate the weight of the consequences of the investigation of alleged corruption related to some projects for the country’s green transition – which also indirectly involved the resigning premier – on the hopes of the Socialist candidate (and party secretary), Pedro Nuno Santos, to limit the damage and reconfirm himself as the first political force in Portugal. Today, the Socialists control 120 out of 230 seats in the National Assembly, ruling without allies.