Rising temperatures worsen Europe’s north-south divide

Brussels – Climate change aggravates the north-south divide in Europe and Italy. One of the consequences of the rise in global temperatures is an increase in poverty in already less-developed areas. In the medium -to long-term, there is a problem of costs and, therefore, of sustainability of budgets, especially national ones. The warning is in the climate risk assessment published by the European Environmental Agency (EEA), which implicitly calls on the Commission to recalibrate regional policies in light of the challenges on the horizon.

The point is that “adaptive capacities are strongly correlated with the state of public finances.” Currently, “governments are still the main investors in adaptation projects.” It all depends on the ability to spend in terms of investment margins and the efficiency of the measures undertaken. In the Italian case, therefore, the issue is more complex and delicate, given the high level of public debt (debt-to-GDP ratio at 140.6 percent projected for this year, 140.9 percent in 2025). Italy must rein in spending, and it cannot invest. Diverting spending to the south risks jamming up the productive north, widening the north-south divide, and worsening the issue of southern Italy.

​A situation that is far from hypothetical, given that not even to the point of pointing it out, EEA further points out, “regions with populations of lower economic status are particularly affected by high temperatures, such as parts of Croatia, Greece, Italy, and Spain where unemployment is high.” So it is the poorest pay the price of global warming; if the bill can be paid. 

“Climate stress tests produce higher debt-to-GDP ratio projections in Mediterranean and Central and Eastern European countries, even under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios,” the Climate Risk Assessments report continues. It means that “the Mediterranean and southeastern European regions have the highest debt burden and the narrowest fiscal space to finance adaptation measures.” In contrast, “northern regions have high adaptive capacities that will allow them to offset the potential impacts of climate risks.” Here, the North-South divide manifests itself, highlighting the never-resolved wealth-poverty issue.

The situation is also difficult to solve because of the dynamics of social decline. “The demographic changes affecting Central and Eastern Europe, particularly emigration and aging, are also contributing to reducing the capacity to adapt.” Translated into practice, all this “will not allow these regions to fully balance negative impacts, resulting in medium to high levels of vulnerability.”