Uncertainty reigns in Portugal. Head-to-head between center-right and socialists, far-right surges

Brussels – Portugal is entering an unprecedented political phase in which it essentially sees bipolarity coming to an end. In the snap elections held yesterday (March 10), the only real winner is the far-right Chega party, which, with 18.1 percent of the vote, quadruples its presence in the Assembly of Portugal and,  more importantly, makes the two major parties — and more specifically the center-right Democratic Alliance — face a historic choice: collaborate or let the ultra-nationalists into the majority for the first time since the fall of the dictatorship in 1976.

According to the almost final results (only the votes from the foreign constituency are missing), the center-right bloc Democratic Alliance – composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Popular Party (CDS), and Popular Monarchist Party (PPM) – came in first with 29.5 percent of the vote, closely followed by the Socialist Party (PS) with 28.7 percent. The Socialists, led by party secretary Pedro Nuno Santos, have limited the damage after the alleged corruption investigation related to some projects for the green transition in the country – which also indirectly involved the resigning premier, António Costa. It was a sharp drop from two years ago when they won 41.4 percent and an absolute majority in Parliament. In the newly formed Assembly of Portugal, the center-right rises to 79 deputies (from 77), while the Socialists lose 43 seats (dropping to 77).

Candidate of the centre-right Democratic Alliance block Luís Montenegro (credits: Miguel Riopa / Afp)

Although the leader of the center-right, Luís Montenegro, claimed victory and called on the other parties to “respect the wish of the Portuguese people,” the one who can claim victory at the polls is the far-right Chega led by André Ventura, which rose from 7.2 percent in 2022 to 18.1 yesterday and now sees quadrupled its strength in Parliament (from 12 to 48 deputies). The result of the Liberal Initiative (at 5.1 percent and eight seats), which Montenegro was looking  towards, hoping for a traditional center-right government, was disappointing. In this scenario of political fragmentation, in which bipolarity can no longer play any role in the formation of the next government, it is clear that there are only two viable paths (except for a new return to the polls): either a centrist bloc to isolate the far right or Chega’s entry into the majority with Democratic Alliance, with or without executive power sharing.