Far-right soars in Austrian polls amidst Russian gas dependence and anti-migrant sentiment

Brussels – After making a killing in the regional elections in the Länder of former East Germany, the far-right seems to be one step closer to government in Austria as well, where next Sunday (Sept. 29), a vote to renew the federal parliament will be held. The Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs(FPO), the “freedom party” led by Herbert Kickl, began several months ago, and now polls give the anti-Islam and pro-Kremlin group just under 30 per cent, at the end of an election campaign dominated by the debate over immigration and the issue of energy dependence on Moscow. The far-right could express the chancellor for the first time since the postwar period, but it is not a foregone conclusion.

First it was the turn of Germany, where the ultra-right ethno-nationalist Alternative für Deustchland (AfD) came first in Thuringia and second (by a whisker) in Saxony and Brandenburg. Now the radical right could come in first on a national scale in Austria as well, which would potentially open the doors of the chancellery to Kickl for the first time in history. For now, no party appears to be able to gain an absolute majority: the FPO is hovering around 29 per cent of support, while in second and third place are the centre-right People’s Party (OVP) and the Social Democrats (SPO) at 22 and 21 per cent, respectively. At the European elections last June, the far-right brought in Strasbourg the largest delegation (6 MEPs sitting in the Patriots for Europe group), ahead of the Populars and Social Democrats (5 elected each). 

In the aftermath of the vote, the real question will, therefore, be about the coalitions: the FPO—which now stands in opposition to the Popular-Green majority—has already been in government in the past as a minority partner in several OVP-led executives but has never expressed the federal chancellor. The possibility of Kickl succeeding in office, however, is not a foregone conclusion: even if the Christian Democrats of Karl Nehammer (who currently leads the executive) come second at the polls, they could agree to form a government with the ultra-right only in exchange for retaining the chancellorship. Alternative alliances to exclude the FPO from the games are theoretically possible (e.g., OVP, SPO, plus a third leg such as the Greens or the Neos liberals) but would be doomed to greater political instability, as the case of Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light coalition” in Berlin teaches. 

At any rate, the election campaign in Austria focused on the issues of security and immigration on the one hand and, on the other, the issue of Vienna’s dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Since the police foiled an attack last August that was supposed to have been triggered at the Taylor Swift concert in the capital, public discourse on frontier control and Islamic-motivated terrorism has tightened, while the FPO has publicly supported remigration plans (just like the AfD in Germany). Inflation, the cost of housing, and, in general, the rising cost of living are other issues that are highly felt by the electorate. At the same time, the topic of climate change following the disasters caused by Cyclone Boris has also held sway in recent days.

With regard to energy, more than 80 per cent of the gas that Austria imports from abroad arrived from Russia: an unsustainable situation for Vienna’s European partners, who have been multiplying their efforts to free themselves from Moscow’s supplies for the past two and a half years. As much as the OVP-Green coalition claims to be looking for alternative sources (primarily Norwegian methane), it is clear that Russian gas will not disappear from the country’s energy mix in the short term. Therefore, whoever sits at the government table will have to solve the complex puzzle of how to avoid new spikes in energy costs for households and businesses, especially if (as announced) Ukraine will block the transit of hydrocarbons from Russia to Austria through its territory from next year.