USA, how the presidential election with unpredictable outcome works

Brussels – It almost sounds like a paradox, but perhaps it says something about the state of the world these days. The outcome of the presidential election in the United States, the most important election of 2024—an unprecedented election year in global history —is virtually impossible to predict. The stakes are high, especially on the international chessboard, but never before has the outcome of the challenge for the White House been so difficult to anticipate. And it will all come down to the conquest of a few swing states or even just one. A handful of votes could be decisive. Here’s what you need to know about the head-to-head contest between the Democratic nominee and incumbent vice president, Kamala Harris, and the Republican challenger and former president, Donald Trump, which is being fought today (Nov. 5) and will have huge repercussions for the world at large and for Europe in particular.

How voting works

To begin with, it should be remembered that the election of the president of the United States is not direct but indirect: citizens do not vote for their favourite candidate but for the list of so-called great electors linked to said candidate. Each federated state has a number of electoral votes (also called delegates) equal to the sum of its representatives in Congress: the number of House members varies according to population, while each state has two senators. For example, this year, California has 54 delegates and Delaware three. There are also three representatives for the District of Columbia, the non-state territory where the federal capital of Washington is located.

Now, the allocation of delegates is almost always done by the winner-takes-all system: all the delegates in a specific state are obtained by the presidential candidate who obtains a simple majority in that state’s popular vote (50 per cent plus one vote). Only two states, Maine and Nebraska (four and five delegates, respectively), adopt a proportional method: the two “territorial” delegates (i.e., those representing the Senate) are obtained by whoever wins the popular vote on a state basis, while the others are divided among the various electoral districts into which the two states are divided.

The Electoral College

The delegates total 538 and will convene in December, forming the so-called Electoral College, a body that decides through a “second-tier” vote who will lead the White House starting Jan. 6, 2025. The “magic number,” i.e., the threshold that must be passed to win the presidency, is 270 votes, a simple majority of the electoral votes. In the event of a tie (both candidates at 269 votes), it is the House of Representatives, which currently has a Republican majority, that decides between the two.

Such a mechanism means that, technically, for presidential candidates, it is not as important to win the popular vote as it is to secure enough delegates in the Electoral College. As counterintuitive as it may seem, the two are not necessarily related: winning the popular vote nationally (i.e., that of citizens in all 50 federation states) does not automatically secure the presidency if you do not win enough electoral votes. Twice in the last quarter century, the candidate who lost the popular vote has been elected president: in 2000, George W. Bush (against challenger Al Gore) and in 2016, Donald Trump (against Hillary Clinton).

The swing states

This is why, in this electoral contest, political geography plays a determining role. Some states are traditionally Democratic (or blue, from the party colour), while others are Republican strongholds (or red). Instead, the real battle will be fought in a handful of states that are usually referred to as the swing states, that is, where there is no clear preference for either party: these are Arizona (11 delegates), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).

According to the latest polls, Harris should already count with reasonable certainty on a treasure trove of 226 delegates while Trump on a number that would range from 219 to 230. What will be decisive, in short, will be the “combinations” of swing states that each of the two candidates will be able to bring home: while it is true that Pennsylvania, with its 19 large electorates, is the “juiciest,” it is also true that winning that alone will not be enough unless the delegates of at least two other swing states are also won. One of the most accredited scenarios is the one by which Trump manages to secure Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, coming in at 268 delegates, while Harris would stand at 251 by winning Michigan and Wisconsin. At that point, Pennsylvania’s 19 votes would be crucial in opening the doors to the White House for both.

What the polls say

Here, we open up the problems of forecasting. In none of the available polls is there a clear advantage of a candidate in the seven swing states: in most cases, the distance is less than two percentage points, that is, too close to the margin of error to accept the readings as reliable. In Pennsylvania, it would appear that Trump is slightly ahead, but the head-to-head is so close that we are talking about a 0.3 per cent gap.

There is also the case of a recent poll that would give Harris a four-point lead over Trump in Iowa, a state that in the last two elections went to the Republicans and was thought to remain red this time as well. This could be a blunder (remember that polls are not an exact science, no matter how much the models they adopt improve over time), or it could be a dynamic capable of throwing into question other states that the two parties consider guaranteed.

Nationally, polls give Harris a slight lead, but it is a 1 per cent distance. The New Yorker tycoon was ahead of the current president, Joe Biden, until the latter backed off last July, leaving his deputy in charge. Since then, Harris has remained mostly in the lead, but the gap between the two candidates has recently narrowed.

The final results

At any rate, we will probably have to wait a while to find out who won the election. The last polls close in Alaska and Hawaii at midnight local time, 6 a.m. Wednesday morning in Italy. The first partial processing of the results should arrive as early as around 2 a.m., but it will be difficult to get a sufficiently complete picture of the situation before 7-8 a.m. That is, of course, in case the outcome of the vote is clear; otherwise, counting could take even longer. In 2020, for example, it took four days for Biden to be proclaimed president-elect, while in 2000, Bush had to wait a month before his challenger conceded defeat.

Given the growing polarization of the US electorate and the pervasiveness of fake news and conspiracy theories, it is to be expected that, if the results of this election do not deliver a clear victory to either candidate, the defeated side will refuse to acknowledge the victory of the other and mobilise to contest it, through the initiation of infinite lawsuits at best or, at worst, through a re-run of the assault on Congress on January 6, 2021.