Brussels – There has been a great frenzy in Europe these past few weeks. All of a sudden, the chancelleries want to take the continental security issue into their own hands, starting with Ukraine but also with the prospect of an eventual disengagement of Washington. The sense of urgency is particularly acute on this side of the Atlantic.
Thus, the defense ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom met yesterday (March 12) in Paris to discuss the Old Continent’s strategic priorities in the new era, where they navigate in uncharted and tumultuous waters. This new format, E5, was launched to deepen cooperation among the five leading powers of continental defense, even if the participants’ positions diverge on some points (such as the relationship with Donald Trump’s United States).
Security and deregulation
As at last week’s extraordinary summit, on the agenda of the third meeting of the E5 Group (the first had been in Berlin in November, the second in Warsaw in January) were two items: European security and the Ukraine war. “Europe must acknowledge that it must start defending itself,” said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, to ensure that the 27 member states are “ready for anything.”
Poland’s Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz welcomed a “real unity of the continent in the face of the threat from the East.” For him, the imperative is “to keep Russia as far away from all our countries as possible.” The Baltics and Scandinavian chancelleries share Warsaw’s goal urgently, and even Brussels is beginning to take it seriously.
However, playing grand strategists requires a solid industrial base. Thus, the EU members of the E5 Group call to simplify EU and national regulations that could “hinder or slow down” arms production and procurement to free up the hands of companies in the sector. “We want to deregulate at the European level, but also in our nation-states,” said Germany’s Boris Pistorius, while according to Crosetto, “bureaucracy should be reduced” to “achieve practical progress.”
It is like shooting at the Red Cross. Ursula von der Leyen has already signaled that she is ready for a new wave of deregulation and a “massive” rearmament of the Union, pounding out a mind-boggling 800 billion over four years. The crucial elements of her ReArm Europe plan are creating new budgetary space for the 27 member states and an ad hoc fund to strengthen the EU’s industrial base. At least on this, the alignment between the chancelleries and the Berlaymont seems absolute.
The war in Ukraine (and Ankara’s game)
Even on the Ukraine dossier, something is moving. According to the host Sébastien Lecornu, a “very broad consensus” is emerging on the need to support the Kyiv army, the “first security guarantee” for the former Soviet republic (much to the chagrin of the Kremlin’s desire for its demilitarization). The discussion on Ukraine’s new “security architecture” would now be expanded to include some fifteen countries (which he did not mention) interested in participating in the coalition of the willing launched by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron.
E5 ministers welcomed the proposed ceasefire agreed in Jeddah by Kyiv and Washington, reiterating that it is now Moscow’s turn to take a step toward ending hostilities. Among the most pressing issues, Lecornu explained, are security in the Black Sea and for Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
Another meeting, convened the previous day in the French capital, between the Chiefs of Staff of over 30 European and NATO countries, was devoted to securing the attacked country. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey could play an essential role among non-EU partners, as it has the second largest army in NATO after the US.
At least, this is the direction of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering between Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Turkish President, who met in Ankara while the E5 group was gathering in Paris. According to them, the Anatolian Republic should regain its lost centrality in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine (in 2022, it helped conclude agreements on Kyiv’s grain transit through the Black Sea).
What about Washington?
Beyond the calls for European strategic autonomy, which resonate mainly along the (perhaps) rediscovered Franco-German axis, the Paris meeting also confirmed that Uncle Sam remains crucial to the security of the Old Continent. “No one in Europe wants to be antagonistic to the United States,” Crosetto reiterated to reporters, adding that “we cannot break the Western alliance on the altar of industrial autonomy.” Not so fast, therefore.
Not even Warsaw wants to sever the umbilical cord that binds it to Washington; on the contrary. Kosiniak-Kamysz has said he wants to “strengthen transatlantic relations.” At the same time, today, President Andrzej Duda proposed to the White House to transfer to Poland the US nuclear warheads present in Western Europe.
NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, is currently visiting the Oval Office. The former Dutch prime minister is on a mission to persuade the tycoon to reconsider and to prevent the risk of the United States seriously distancing itself from the Alliance, as several prominent members of the Trump administration suggested on several occasions.
For now, most see Washington’s potential disengagement from the Old Continent as a political lever to force European allies to take more responsibility regarding their security, especially in terms of defense spending. But these days, one never knows.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
