Ukraine, all eyes on Istanbul (but without Putin and Zelensky)

Brussels – Turkey is powerfully back in the centre of international diplomacy. Although Vladimir Putin has defected from a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, the possibility still exists in Istanbul that the negotiating delegations of Moscow and Kyiv will meet for the first time since 2022, although hopes for a decisive breakthrough are slim. The Ukrainian president saw his Turkish counterpart The Ukrainian president saw his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Ankara, while the NATO allies met in Antalya to discuss future increases in military spending.

Could the diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war go through Turkey? That is the hope of chancelleries around the world, which have been watching with bated breath—but not too many illusions—since this morning (May 15), the developments unfolding between Ankara and Istanbul. There, representatives of Moscow and Kyiv could meet as early as this evening to discuss the terms of a ceasefire, also with Turkish and U.S. emissaries, as announced a few hours ago by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Since last night, when Vladimir Putin dropped the offer made by the Ukrainian leader to meet in person in the thousand-year-old city on the Bosphorus, it has become apparent that the long-awaited breakthrough in negotiations to end the war would not come anytime soon. Donald Trump himself, who had also assumed that he would travel to Istanbul to participate in possible talks, cancelled his visit once he learned of the tsar’s absence.

But Zelensky still showed up in Ankara to see his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the end of the bilateral meeting, the Ukrainian president criticised the Kremlin’s decision to send a low-level delegation (neither the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, nor presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov, are part of it), describing it as a demonstration that “Russia does not think it should end” the war it unleashed more than three years ago.

“Which means that there is not enough political, economic, and other pressure” on Moscow, he argued, calling for “appropriate sanctions” if the Istanbul negotiations do not lead to an understanding for a truce in the fighting (a move already accomplished by the EU). Zelensky also got something off his chest regarding the New York tycoon.“Pressure must be put on the side that does not want to end the war,” he said, adding that from his point of view, Washington has “put more pressure on us than on the Russians,” without getting the desired results.

Kyiv and its Western allies have long been calling for a total 30-day ceasefire as a precondition for launching broader talks. A position the Kremlin has so far rejected, preferring to initiate any talks without, in the meantime, suspending bombings and attacks. Moscow’s willingness to consider the diplomatic option came only in the wake of the recapture by Russian troops of the oblast’ of Kursk invaded by Ukrainians last August.

I had a good and productive meeting with President of Türkiye @RTErdogan in Ankara. It focused on bringing peace closer and guaranteeing security.

I thank President Erdoğan and all of Türkiye for their support of our state, and for supporting all the real steps toward a full,… pic.twitter.com/dk3lPdooJE

– Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa) May 15, 2025

At present, it is unclear what results can be expected from the Istanbul talks. Presidential adviser Andrij Yermak leads the Ukrainian delegation, while heading the Russian team is Vladimir Medinsky, an ultraconservative former minister of culture who is considered a Kremlin hawk. Trump commented that “nothing will happen until Putin and I meet”.

“We are ready to work and resume talks,” Medinsky said, claiming that his delegation “is determined to be constructive and seek solutions and common ground.” But, reiterating for the umpteenth time that Russia aims to “eliminate the root causes of the conflict,” he implied that the Federation’s maximalist positions have not changed.

However, the fact that a direct communication channel between Kyiv and Moscow can be reopened is already an achievement. The first and only time that the two belligerents sat at the same table was in March 2022, also in Istanbul. Back then, negotiations were derailed following the discovery of the Bucha massacre by the Ukrainians, but they were unlikely to lead to any agreement given the demands made by the Kremlin.

Erdoğan is trying to reposition Turkey as a key mediator in this very delicate diplomatic game. In addition to the talks in March three years ago, the sultan had also mediated, in July of that year, the stipulation of the so-called Black Sea Initiative, which allowed Ukrainian wheat and Russian fertilisers to continue to be exported to the world for 12 months.

In Istanbul, moreover, two top brass from the star-studded administration are also expected to arrive in the coming hours: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. The former attended yesterday and today the NATO Ministerial in Antalya, in the southwest of the country.

There, the foreign ministers of the 32 alliance members discussed the U.S. proposal to increase military spending to 5 per cent of GDP, an issue that will hold centre stage at the Hague summit scheduled for June 24–25. To date, nine countries, including Italy, do not even reach the target of 2 per cent agreed upon in 2014 (Spain is the one spending the least in proportion to its GDP).