Irregular crossings into the EU drop 20 percent since 2024; central Mediterranean route rises again

Brussels – In the first five months of the year, irregular entries of migrants into EU territory decreased by 20 percent compared to the same period in 2024. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) has recorded 63,700 of them, about a third coming from the central Mediterranean route.

Already declining last year, the numbers confirm the effectiveness of the hardline adopted by the Union and its member states, as well as some of the agreements signed with countries of origin and transit to block departures. With the strong economic and logistical support of the European Commission, Tunisian authorities have almost reduced them to zero. According to Frontex data, the drop in departures from Tunisia compared to a year ago is 90 percent.

However,  22,700 irregular crossings were recorded from the central Mediterranean, a slight increase of 7 percent compared to the same period in 2024. The surge, which offset the efforts of the authoritarian government of Kais Saied in Tunisia, occurred in neighboring, unstable Libya, from where most migrants on the route to Italy departed.

The Eastern Mediterranean was the second busiest route since the beginning of 2025, with 15,600 irregular crossings, down 30 percent compared to 2024. Arrivals decreased by a third in Spain and the Canary Islands: 11,100 entries were recorded from the West African route. Here, too – in addition to “adverse weather conditions” – Frontex attributes the significant drop to “stronger border controls and migration policies in Mauritania,” with which Brussels signed a €210 million migration partnership last spring, and in general to “enhanced cooperation between the EU and the countries of departure.”

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in the first five months of the year, at least 651 migrants lost their lives trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea. In the same period in 2024, there were 1,178 dead and missing.

From the Western Balkans and the eastern borders of the EU, irregular arrivals decreased by 56 percent and 7 percent, respectively. In total, this is about 9,000 migrants. However, the 17 percent increase was significant in those attempting to reach the United Kingdom from the French coast: in recent months, 25,540 people crossed the English Channel. According to Frontex, “smuggling networks operating in the area are adapting, using simultaneous departures to increase the number of successful crossings.”