EU leaders’ summit amidst many issues, stalemate over Ukraine and divisions over Israel

Brussels – So many issues to discuss and so little to decide on for a European Council summit, the one scheduled for tomorrow (26 June) and, at least according to the agenda, Friday (27 June), marked by a stalemate over the future of Ukraine and divisions over condemnation of Israel, however eventually recognised by the EU, for its disproportionate response to Hamas aggression.

The heads of state and government of the 27 Member States are called to a political confrontation preparatory to subsequent real and operational decisions, and this alone makes the summit unattractive in terms of expectations. However, it is on the hottest topics on the agenda, because they are the most pressing issues of the day, that figures who are certainly not exemplary are being announced.

On Ukraine, the leaders are already losing their ally, Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president, expected in attendance, was forced to return home due to the resumption of the Russian offensive, which will force confrontations on video. For support of the eastern country and its leader, the EU offers the same well-established script: continued support by 26 without Hungary, as already happened in the meeting in early March and then again at the end of the same month. Once again, Budapest opposes the start of the first negotiation chapters for accession. The EU of the ’27 minus 1′ will have to start thinking about what to do about financial aid, because, as qualified sources recognise, if hostilities between Ukraine and Russia should continue, it will be necessary to imagine how to continue refinancing Kyiv.

There is no truce in sight. Furthermore, the Israeli attack on Iran has distracted the United States from the Russian-Ukrainian quarter of the world, as has the European Union, which will indeed discuss the Middle East during a summit where the Jewish state will play a significant role. The leaders are not expected to call for a suspension of the EU-Israel association agreement; the knot to be unravelled in Brussels is how to treat the Netanyahu government for how it is continuing to handle the situation in Gaza and the Palestinian territories. There are countries that would like it to be clearly stated that Israel is violating fundamental rights, while another group of EU countries, including Italy, would like to avoid this because it is feared that this will further harden Israeli positions.

Ukraine and Israel could be the issues that cause the European Council summit to stall, where substantial progress is not even expected on defence. The real question here is how to finance large-scale rearmament. Italy, Spain and France are leading the way in arguing that if the spending target agreed with NATO rises to 5 per cent of gross domestic product, then the need to find these resources cannot be ignored, given that the €1.5 billion EDIP programme is not enough. Germany and the Netherlands continue to reject Eurobonds, while Denmark and Finland are cautiously considering the possibility, but it is still too early for any progress in this direction. Not even a defence bank project such as NATO’s DSR seems to be on the horizon.

So, on with the debate, while waiting for the European Commission to present its proposal for the next multiannual budget (MFF 2028–2034). Observers argue that at this summit of EU leaders, “much” will depend on how European Council President Antonio Costa sets the tone and manages the debates. Brussels acknowledges that “There is plenty of scope for deadlock, including on competitiveness, but there is also room to find formulas for real discussions without wasting hours on words.” Seeing is believing. Costa’s stated goal is to wrap everything up in one day, but the premises may not live up to his intentions.