Brussels – The Danish Presidency Council of the European Union kicks off today, Tuesday, 1 July. From trade tensions with the United States to internal tensions within the pro-European majority backing Ursula von der Leyen, Copenhagen will have to steer the 27 member states out of a period filled with dangerous unknowns. “It is all very unpredictable,” admitted the ambassador to the EU, Carsten Grønbech-Jensen.
“A strong Europe in a changing world” is the motto chosen by the kingdom overlooking the Baltic Sea to sum up its work program. The two priorities indicated by Copenhagen are, on the one hand, defense and security, and on the other, the economy and competitiveness. It could not be otherwise: as a war continues to rage at the heart of the continent — the Russian-Ukrainian conflict — the EU has been sidelined and even a little stabbed in the back by its lifelong ally, the United States. Faced with the Russian threat and Washington’s commercial aggression, Brussels has rediscovered itself more vulnerable than ever.
According to the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “thanks to Danish pragmatism and leadership, Europe is in good hands.” The EU executive has already presented the first legislative proposals to strengthen the bloc’s defense and competitiveness. The 150 billion Safe Fund for loans to the defense industry was approved in record time, during the Polish presidency, as was the first of seven Omnibus packages on regulatory simplification for European companies. On all other files, it will be up to Denmark to lead the negotiations between the member states and the European Parliament.
Now that NATO has set the bar for military spending at 5 percent of GDP by 2035, “we will insist on more details on how we can enhance our defense sector,” said Grønbech-Jensen. At the European Council last week, the heads of state and government asked von der Leyen to set out the next steps in a roadmap by October. Several countries have expressed concerns about the instruments made available so far, all of which involve the use of more national debt. Denmark is among the 16 countries that have so far requested the activation of the safeguard clause of the Stability and Growth Pact to finance defense.
As Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen underlined, that choice marked Copenhagen’s exit from the club of frugal countries. In the middle of the month, the European Commission will present the proposal for the new multi-year budget of the Union for the period 2028-2035, and it will be Denmark that will initiate and coordinate the delicate negotiations between the member states. “We have played a leading role in the four frugal group of countries but next time we will play a leading role in another group because things have changed, the world is changing rapidly, and we have to find the right answers to all the challenges we face,” Frederiksen said just a few weeks ago.
The Danish ambassador to the EU made it clear that this “does not mean that we will propose a lot more money, but given the enormous geopolitical challenges we face, it does mean that we do not reject joint financing proposals outright.” Copenhagen breaks a historical taboo, but caution is essential: “It is very difficult to convince countries that are skeptical about Eurobonds if you don’t tell them what they will finance,” Grønbech-Jensen went on to explain, adding a note of warning: common debt remains “a thorny issue.”
Similarly, the situation regarding the stability of the pro-European majority in the European Parliament, which is shaky due to the increasingly frequent drift to the right of the European People’s Party, could become difficult. The Danish presidency may find itself having to deal with the clash within the European Parliament over the issue, which would inevitably weigh on the finalization of legislative proposals. Regarding the issue that upended the situation — the European Commission’s announced withdrawal of the directive on environmental claims — Copenhagen admitted that it “has yet to decide exactly how to proceed.”
The Danish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Marie Bjerre, recalled this morning in a statement two other priorities of the semester: “Supporting Ukraine and tackling irregular migration.” In the first case, and particularly regarding advancing Kyiv’s path towards EU membership, Copenhagen will need to overcome Hungary’s veto: “We are reflecting on how to do that, we hope to succeed,” the ambassador commented. In the second case, Frederiksen’s social-democratic government is proving to be one of the major allies of von der Leyen and the Italian government, with which it has been coordinating an informal group on the issue for months, in the gradual tightening of the clampdown on irregular migration. There is no doubt that Copenhagen will do everything in its power to move forward quickly on the European Commission’s latest proposals on returns and the revision of the concept of safe third countries.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
