France: Far-right confirms no confidence in Bayrou, government fails to secure majority

Brussels – Game over: François Bayrou’s days are numbered. The mathematical confirmation came in the last few hours, during the consultations with political parties initiated by the transalpine premier to test the ground in view of the confidence vote he himself called for next week in an attempt to push through his controversial 2026 budget plan. Not only will the opposition parties refuse to support him, but also parts of his government coalition. 

The last hopes of French Prime Minister François Bayrou to stay at the head of the government were dashed this afternoon (2 September). When, a few days ago, he announced he wanted to submit to a vote of confidence on 8 September, he was probably convinced he could pull a rabbit out of his hat and withstand the attacks from opposition parties.

 But the Palais Matignon occupant did not even have to reach the end of the round of consultations with the parliamentary forces (which will last until Thursday) to realise that his premier ministre experience will end there, not even nine months after receiving the mandate from President Emmanuel Macron. On Monday, barring a resounding turnaround, the most fragmented Assemblée Nationale of modern French history will dethrone the premier, by rejecting him over the unpopular 2026 budget with which he sought to save the Treasury nearly 44 billion euros.

Bayrou had to find a way to shore up the French public accounts: the public debt is hovering around 114 percent of GDP, and the deficit has exceeded 6 percent, twice the threshold allowed by European constraints (the debt ceiling is 60 percent of GDP). The prime minister pointed the finger at the national pension system, a 400 billion a year black hole on which he was unable to find common ground with the opposition.

The opposition parties – from the extreme right of the Rassemblement National (RN) to the radical left of La France Insoumise (LFI) via the Parti Socialiste (PS) – have announced that they will not support him next Monday. The mathematical certainty emerged after the National Rally (RN), the largest parliamentary group with 123 of the 577 seats, rebuffed the head of government. Several left-wing parties did not even participate in the consultations. 

After an hour of talks with Bayrou, the leader of the Rassemblement group in the House, Marine Le Pen, called for an “extremely rapid disbandment” of the Parliament. Her protégé Jordan Bardella confirmed that “today’s meeting will not change the position” of the party, which he has led since 2022 and which has long been leading in the polls: “The sooner we go back to the polls, the sooner France will have a budget,” he added.

The latest development, instead, is that the same hastily cobbled-together centrist coalition Macron formed at the end of last year quickly unraveled. The leader of Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) will lack the support of some neo-Gaullist Républicains (LR). There will be defections even in the Presidential platform Renaissance – the electoral alliance that includes La République en Marche (LREM), Horizons, and MoDem – as well as among the independents of the Libertés, Indépendants Outre-Mer et Territoires (LIOT) group, which supports the minority executive. 

There seems to be no peace for France, once renowned for its political-institutional stability (enshrined in the 1958 Constitution that gave birth to the Cinquième République), but today shaken by the most profound crisis in decades. Since losing last year’s European elections and calling early elections, the occupant of the Elysée Palace has seen three premiers burn out in one year. At the same time, his personal approval ratings have plummeted. 

This time, Bayrou will not succeed in repeating
January’s outcome, when he survived a censure motion thanks to the votes of the ultra-right and socialists. Once the government falls, Macron will have three options. Appoint yet another prime minister, who is unlikely to receive the confidence of the hemicycle. Dissolve parliament, and call the French to the polls, risking finding an even more fragmented Assemblée on his hands. Or resign. So far, however, Monsieur le Président has categorically ruled out the latter option.