Brussels – This time, the numbers of the Assemblée Nationale did not play in favor of the radical left, whose motion of no confidence against Prime Minister François Bayrou failed as the Socialists defected. At the same time, the extreme right also backed out. The head of the transalpine executive gains a few more weeks in power, but there is still the stumbling block of the budget law, which will have to be approved by a parliament that has never been so fragmented in France’s modern history.
The vote in the House
Late this afternoon (Jan. 16), MPs voted with a broad majority against the no-confidence motion tabled the day before yesterday by La France Insoumise (LFI), the radical left-wing party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon that constitutes the main force within the heterogeneous Nouveau front populaire (NFP), the progressive coalition that also includes socialists, ecologists, and communists.
The 131 “yes” votes secured by the left were not enough, as it required 288 to unseat Bayrou. Numbers in hand Mélenchon and his comrades fell short by 66 votes from their Parti Socialiste (PS) allies and, most notably, the 124 of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen, daughter of the recently deceased Jean-Marie.
At the end of the address speech given by the Premier Ministre in the House, LFI MPs filed the motion of no confidence on Tuesday night (Jan. 14). On that occasion, Bayrou had extended an olive branch, primarily to the Social Democrats, opening to the possibility of re-negotiating the highly contested pension reform that, in 2023, President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron had pushed through parliament by force.
The head of state had concurrently stressed the need to reduce the country’s “excessive” deficit, which already widely exceeded the constraints imposed by Brussels (it currently hovers around 6 percent of GDP, while the ceiling is 3 percent).
Towards a truce?
The offer by Bayrou, who has been in office for just over a month, is to open a “workshop” for discussion with the political forces and social partners concerned, but without going into the details of which aspects may undergo a revision.
The tenant of the Matignon palace has proposed three months to discuss the issue with opposition forces while keeping in place Macron’s reform (which raises the retirement age from 62 to 64). Both the left and the right in the assembly oppose the reform.
A concession that, at least for the moment, seems to have sufficed for the reformist center-left, which has long tried to distance itself from Mélenchon’s incendiary rhetoric. The PS, a traditional party with a gubernatorial vocation, does not take kindly to the firings of the allies of Insoumis, with whom it agreed to form an electoral coalition last summer but which is proving increasingly unwieldy both ahead of the presidential elections in 2027 and, more importantly, the probable early elections that could be called in July of this year (the Constitution prevents citizens from being called to the polls less than 12 months after the last round of elections).
The reactions
In the debate before the vote, RN vice-president Sebastien Chenu said his party would judge the government “not by its words, but by its actions.” In contrast, MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy of Le Pen’s party targeted Insoumis, claiming that he doesn’t think “a vote of no confidence should be a gadget to create a stir.”
After the vote, LFIgroup leader in the House Mathilde Panot lashed out not only at the premier but also at the Socialists, accused of “being isolated from the rest of the NFP” and the extreme right, labeling it as auxiliaries for Macron’s center bloc.
“Bayrou won’t fall today, but his days are still numbered.
The responsibility for maintaining a government that the people have rejected three times at the ballot box lies with :❌ PS which has isolated itself from the rest of the NFP.
❌ RN who are the Macronie’s auxiliaries.” -… pic.twitter.com/hmQhzJFjdq– La France Insoumise #NFP at the Assembly (@FiAssemblee) January 16, 2025
Uphill Road
For now, the Matignon is licking its wounds. However, the road ahead for Bayrou remains decidedly narrow. Deprived of a solid majority in the Assemblée, the prime minister depends on the behavior of opposition groups, who can bring him down by voting together on a motion of no confidence, as happened to his predecessor, Michel Barnier, ousted after just three months as head the government. The president of the PS, Olivier Faure, warned the premier that even if it did not pass, a no-confidence vote could come “at any time.”
The next crucial date is the adoption of the budget law for 2025. The document should be submitted to the Senate for a first reading on Jan. 23. However, the tug-of-war with parliamentary forces promises to be complex and could continue into February.
Turning to deputies before the vote, Bayrou reiterated that “the choice we face in this grave situation for our country is between permanent internal confrontation and trying to find the path of dialogue, reflection, compromise, and negotiation to move things forward.” An appeal he may have to repeat often in the coming months.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
