France once again without a government. Macron, the heat is on

Brussels – Nine months after taking office, the fragile government led by François Bayrou fell and threw France into an unprecedented crisis. The collapse—in many ways inevitable—occurred over the confidence vote requested by Bayrou himself on the unpopular budget plan for 2026, presented by the premier. Fatal, as with his predecessor Michel Barnier, were the compact “no” votes of the extreme right of the Rassemblement National and the left-wing parties, primarily the Socialists and La France Insoumise. 

With 364 votes against and 194 votes in favour, the National Assembly rejected the austerity measures with which Bayrou had hoped to save the treasury almost 44 billion and restore the public accounts of Paris, whose public debt stands at around 114 per cent of GDP and whose deficit has exceeded the 6 per cent threshold, twice as much as allowed by European constraints. To reduce the deficit to 4.6 per cent of GDP, in addition to spending cuts and new taxes, Bayrou had even suggested the suppression of two public holidays (Easter Monday and 8 May, which celebrates the end of World War II), triggering strong protests both in Parliament and in the streets. 

In a speech that lasted about 40 minutes, the leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) emphasised the disastrous state of the hexagon’s economy, where debt “has been accumulating for 51 years” and where debt has become “a reflex, or worse, an addiction.” In front of an incandescent Assembly, Bayrou then pointed his finger at the parties and their leaders, guilty of putting “political issues and the upcoming presidential elections” before the “historic issues” that “will shape the future” of the country.

In fact, the real target of the opposition is not the tenant of Palais Matignon, nor his painful financial manoeuvre, but resides a few streets away, at the Elysée Palace: Emmanuel Macron and the management of the post-European elections, in June last year, which marked the defeat of his Renaissance and the French centrist universe and the simultaneous affirmation of the Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen. 

The President of the Republic, hoping to pull a rabbit out of his hat, called new elections, which only confirmed the extreme polarisation of the French political spectrum, with the left-wing NFP (New Popular Front) coalition and the far-right RN leaving only crumbs for the Macronists. Yet, Macron decided to entrench himself at the Elysée and patch together an unlikely and fragile coalition to support a moderate executive led by the neo-Gaullist Michel Barnier. Falling after barely two months, he was replaced by Bayrou, whose fate was inevitably sealed from the start. 

“You have the power to bring down the government, but not to erase the inexorable reality,” the premier attacked in the Assembly. Boris Vallaud, leader of the Socialist Party group in the National Assembly, called Macron “a defeated president”, truly responsible for the worst political crisis in the country’s modern history. The leader of the far right, Marine Le Pen, hailed the “end of the agony of a ghost government”, and her dauphin, Jordan Bardella, pointed the way with a post on X: “Emmanuel Macron has in his hands the only solution to get our country out of the political impasse: return to the polls.” 

Faced with the inevitable own goal, Macron has three options: appoint yet another prime minister, who is unlikely to receive the confidence of the Chamber, dissolve Parliament and call the French to the polls, risking finding an even more fragmented Assembly on his hands, or resign: “The president does not want to change his policy, so we will have to change the president,” suggested insoumise Mathilde Panot in the Chamber.