French Prime Minister Lecornu dodges censure by a handful of votes. But Parliament is waiting for him on budget

Brussels – For the moment, Sébastien Lecornu can breathe a sigh of relief. The French prime minister survived the two motions of no-confidence voted today (16 October) by the Assemblée nationale, thanks to the decisive support of the Socialists. Neither vote reached the critical threshold of 289 ‘yes’ needed to unseat him, although the first, that of the radical left, came closer than expected. But the worst political crisis of modern French history is far from over, and facing the tenant of the Palais Matignon, the road is still all uphill. 

The motion filed by La France insoumise (LFI), the party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, garnered 271 votes in favour, while that of the Rassemblement national (RN), the ultra-right of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, remained pinned at 144. It was already known that the most insidious would be the former, since the RN had declared that it would support it (in contrast, the Nouveau Front Populaire leftists did not vote for the Le Penists’ one). 

It was also known, or at least foreshadowed, that the Insoumis would not pass either, since in the last few days the Socialist Party (PS) had announced that it did not want to sink Lecornu, showing interest in the openings on the contested pension reform, wanted by Emmanuel Macron in 2023 but now suspended until 2028 precisely to keep Olivier Faure‘s party on board. The surprise was, rather, about the margin of votes that allowed Lecornu to remain in the saddle.

According to the figures, the premier-minister with the (so far) shortest career in the Fifth Republic—his first term lasted less than a month, while his second started just a few days ago—has escaped censure by a mere 18 votes. Not very few, but less than the 24 predicted in the eve’s calculations. Among the groups that are not “suspect” (i.e. excluding the Left and Right), seven Social Democrat deputies, a conservative neo-Gaullist from the Républicains (LR), two independents and a representative of the territorial autonomies (LIOT) turned their backs on the chief executive. 

The leader of the RN, Bardella, caustically commented on the outcome of the vote, pointing the finger at the unnatural axis between the Socialists and the centrists: “A majority put together with under-the-table agreements managed today to save its own positions, at the disregard of the national interest,” was the lunge of Le Pen’s probable successor. Disappointment also came from the opposite end of the parliamentary spectrum, with Insoumise group leader Mathilde Panot expressing regret for “all those who will suffer the cruel policies announced (by Lecornu, ed) for the budget.” 

And it is precisely on the financial manoeuvre for 2026 that the premier will have to fight his next battle, which will start as early as Monday and promises to be extremely tough. The numbers of today’s vote starkly highlight the fragility of the Lecornu bis, yet another minority government in a legislature never so fragmented in the history of the Cinquième République.

The tenant of Matignon has promised that he will not resort to Article 49.3 of the Constitution—the rule that allows the executive to force the approval of a law, bypassing Parliament (his predecessor Michel Barnier used it, exposing himself to censure by the House)—to get his manoeuvre of more than €30 billion approved, claiming that he wants to find an agreement with the parties by 31 December to avoid the provisional financial year. 

The next budget will also have to fix the disastrous public accounts of the Eurozone’s second-largest economy: Paris’s deficit currently stands at 5.8 GDP points (almost double the ceiling set by Brussels at 3 per cent), while the public debt has broken through the 115 per cent mark, the third highest after Greece and Italy. Lecornu aims for a deficit of 4.7 per cent by 2026.

The task, however, will be arduous. 

The progressive forces of the NFP demand a clear change of pace from the government and support the Socialists’ proposal for a “Zucman tax” (named after the economist Gabriel Zucman who drafted it), i.e. a 2 per cent tax on fortunes over 100 million. However, the measure, which would affect 0.01 per cent of the national population, is unpopular in the rest of the Assemblée, from the Macronist centre to the extreme right-wing Lepenists. Faure’s social democrats, at any rate, have made it clear that today’s abstention is not a blank cheque and that
they’ll be watching the prime minister closely.

After all, the real target of the chamber is not so much Lecornu as what he represents. Namely, the political macronism, by now largely repudiated by the electoral body. The results of the latest consultations prove this: the European elections in June 2024 and the legislative elections called in a hurry by Monsieur le Président in an egregiously unsuccessful attempt to recompose the liberal centre and stem the rise of the extreme right. 

If the French voted today, the RN would get more than 33 per cent of the preferences, more than double the presidential coalition. From the LFI benches, meanwhile, Mélenchon continues to call for the impeachment of the head of state, who remains barricaded in the Elysée Palace and categorically refuses to resign before the natural end of his mandate, which expires in spring 2027.