Trump to meet Putin in Budapest: It is time for an EU reality check

Brussels – After a two-hour phone call on the conflict in Ukraine came the announcement: US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will meet on European Union soil, in Budapest, with Viktor Orban’s Hungary showing its cards, by openly playing against EU institutions, and in particular the European Commission, which is now forced to face reality despite having consistently ruled out direct dialogue with Vladimir Putin.

The meeting announced, but with no specific date yet, aims to “bring an end to this inglorious war between Russia and Ukraine”, as Trump put it. Brussels is shrugging its shoulders and trying to look on the bright side of an ill-digested affair: “Any initiative aimed at a just and lasting peace is welcome,” cuts short Olof Gill, deputy head of the Spokesman’s Service.

Orbán’s success, mediating on his own

 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán used the meeting’s announcement for propaganda purposes, happy to claim his role as mediator. “This is a victory for the Hungarian position,” stressed Orbán in an interview on public radio Kossuth. Inevitable then, for the head of government, to take a jab at the EU partners: “The lesson for the EU is that the others were on the losing side, and that you have to deal with the Russians, like America does.”

The European Commission does not have an actual foreign policy of its own, which is why it strives to press ahead and think in terms of realpolitik. The Commission “lives in the real world and wants to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” Gill reiterates. “Even if the meetings do not always take place in the way, format, and order we would like, we are ready to welcome them if they are useful for peace.” An observation that only came when faced with a done deal: the probable red carpet for Putin within the European Union.

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The nonexistent sanction

The only legal constraint against making this scenario possible is the sanctions against Russian officials, many of which, however, can be curbed by individual states. As the European Commission spokeswoman, Anitta Hipper, admitted, “sanctions concern their assets and do not prohibit Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov and Vladimir Putin from traveling or freedom of movement in the European space.”

Putin is still the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. However, not even here can the European Commission intervene, as the application of the rules depends on the Member States. The same applies to the Russian overflight ban, which is also up to national discretion. Hungary certainly does not intend to enforce any of these measures. Budapest has stated that it will not impose any restrictions in the event of a diplomatic visit by Russian officials.

Outside Europe

Amid the ongoing European wrangling, the announcement of the meeting came on the heels of the American visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In the bilateral meeting he will hold with Donald Trump, the leaders will discuss the supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles and Patriot defense systems. Upon learning of the European meeting, Zelensky attempted to downplay the situation: “We can already see that Moscow is rushing to resume dialogue as soon as it hears about the Tomahawks.”

Potential Tomahawk targets in Russia

If the U.S. sends Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, nearly 2,000 Russian military sites — including 76 airbases — could fall within range.

Source: ISW pic.twitter.com/506oQsIuSB

— Clash Report (@clashreport), October 16, 2025 

However, not everyone shares this simplistic reading. For some analysts, President Trump had been suggesting for days that he would allow the sale of the missiles to Kyiv, but after the phone call, he hinted that this might not happen in the event of diplomatic progress. Vladimir Putin, however, after his personal success at the Anchorage (Alaska) summit in August, is reportedly trying to soften the US position after months of sharp contrast.

True peace still seems far off. The summit itself is not yet certain: in the coming days, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will go to Moscow to meet with Putin’s highest officials to prepare for the meeting. Only then will it be known whether progress will be sufficient to organize a high-level meeting in Budapest. The impression, however, is that Vladimir Putin will not miss the opportunity to humiliate Europe with a triumphal walk inside the Union, with the complicity of his Hungarian ally, aware that EU enemies remain outside the negotiating table for now.