Brussels – “The Alaska summit effectively means an end to Putin’s international isolation—no major Western leader has met with him since the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” This was stated, in a comment on the upcoming summit between the US and Russian Presidents, by Jana Kobzova, Co-Director of the European Security Programme of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). She points out that “Putin gets a summit with the US president without any concessions on his part, such as a pause in the war against Ukraine. In itself, this is already a good result for Putin.”
Kobzova goes on to say that “moreover, Putin will debate Ukraine and European security with neither the Ukrainians nor the Europeans in the room, and as far from the European continent as possible. That’s already another good outcome for the Kremlin. It fits into Putin’s vision of the world in which great powers decide the fate of the smaller ones, which is the exact opposite of Europe’s vision.”
However, “on Ukraine, the Russian leader will have to balance. On the one hand, he will need to somehow respond to Trump’s ambition to become a peacemaker between Ukraine and Russia—if Putin shows no flexibility at all that might prompt the US president to finally deliver on the threats of more sanctions on Moscow and its allies. On the other hand,” Kobzova argues, “the Kremlin believes it has the upper hand on the battlefield at the moment, so if it can’t extract concessions diplomatically, it can just continue to plough forward on the battlefield.”
In the researcher’s opinion, “Russia’s most favourable outcome would be the ‘neutralisation’ of the US when it comes to Ukraine—i.e., decreased US involvement in efforts to end the war and, more importantly, a cessation of military aid to Ukraine. Expect Putin to float all kinds of possibilities for joint U.S.-Russian energy and other business, including tapping Arctic resources. The other offer might be new talks on arms control.”
Most European leaders recognise the high stakes and risks of the summit, “hence,” Kobzova explains, “this week’s diplomatic flurry, including today’s virtual pre-summit meeting between EU leaders, Trump, and Zelensky. As a recent ECFR policy brief argued, the EU will bear the brunt of the conflict’s outcome. Europe’s future hinges on whether Ukraine becomes stable and prosperous (even without full territorial control) or remains a weak, unstable state vulnerable to Russian attacks.”
Kobzova concludes by pointing out that ‘the spectre of Trump and Putin alone deciding the future of Ukraine and, indeed, of the entire European security has already prompted EU leaders to increase defence spending, double down on military aid to Ukraine, and engage diplomatically with Trump and his team to get across their messages and red lines.”
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
