At today’s pace, EU will not be able to cut emissions by 55 per cent by 2030

Brussels – The European Union takes another small step toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but to reach the 2030 targets, it needs to take a bigger stride. This is according to the annual State of the Energy Union report, published today (6 November) by the European Commission. In 2024, the EU cut emissions by 2.5 per cent compared to the previous year: to reach the 55 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by the end of the decade, a 3.6 per cent annual cut would now be needed. 

In fact, the report, which includes the European Environmental Agency data on trends for the coming years, indicates that to date the EU has managed to reduce pollutant emissions by 37.2 per cent compared to 1990. Over the same period, the GDP of the 12-star club has grown by 71 per cent, which—Brussels points out—”means that economic growth continues to decouple from emissions.” A few months ago, the European Commission said it was “on track” to cut emissions by 54 per cent by 2030, stopping just one percentage point short of the target. If the 2024 pace is maintained, the projections will inevitably have to be revised downwards. 

Looking instead at a snapshot of the EU energy mix, the glass is certainly half full: the target of 42.5 per cent renewable energy has been far exceeded; today, we are at 47 per cent. Some 77 GW of renewable energy capacity will be installed in 2024, against a final energy consumption that continues to decline, with a 3 per cent drop compared to 2022, mainly in the residential sector, followed by industry and services. 

The European Commission claims that “electricity consumers in the EU have already saved €100 billion through the production of electricity from new solar photovoltaic and wind power plants in the period 2021–2023.” But at the same time, it admits that average energy prices in Europe “are still higher than those of our competitors and vary widely between member states.” 

The report makes it clear that “achieving the EU’s 2030 energy targets will require a much faster deployment of renewables and energy efficiency improvements in the coming years.” For example, the decarbonisation of the building (heating and cooling) and transport sectors is proceeding slowly: even this year, progress “has been limited,” the report admits. Yet the European Commission seems ready to give in to member states’ demands to postpone—by one year, from 2027 to 2028—the entry into force of ETS 2, the emissions trading scheme explicitly dedicated to those sectors. 

Not only that, the EU must “increase the share of electricity in final energy from the current 23 per cent target to around 32 per cent by 2034,” “substantially” increase investments in networks, and “step up efforts” in energy efficiency. All challenges for which resources are needed: the European Commission estimates that €695 billion in investments per year will be required in the energy sector from 2031 to 2040.