Migrants: Frontex reports 60 per cent drop in irregular arrivals to the EU in January due to bad weather; deaths triple

Brussels – A 60 per cent reduction in irregular border crossings, but three times as many victims in the Mediterranean. The particularly severe weather in January also took a heavy toll on migrants. The picture is painted by data from Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, which also reports information from the Missing Migrants Project, an initiative launched in 2014 by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) to document deaths and disappearances of people during their migration journey to an international destination. In a bulletin published today (13 January), Frontex data show that in January 2026, there were 5,500 irregular border crossings, 60 per cent fewer than in January 2025 (when there were 13,500). The main causes of this decline were violent winter storms and rough seas along the main migration routes.

“Harsh conditions in the Mediterranean and strong winds along land borders made journeys significantly more dangerous and disrupted departures. The weather may have slowed departures, but it did not stop ruthless smugglers. Even in freezing temperatures and heavy seas, they continued to launch overcrowded, unseaworthy boats, sending vulnerable people into life-threatening conditions to protect their profits. The human cost has been devastating,” the European Agency explained in its press release. This drastic decrease is also attributed to Cyclone Harry, which hit the Mediterranean coast between 19 and 21 January, causing severe damage in Greece, Italy, Malta, and Portugal and making the crossing risky. The extreme weather conditions disrupted departures, but did not stop them: according to data from the International Organisation for Migration, 452 people died or disappeared in the Mediterranean in January 2026, more than triple the number in the first month of 2025 (93 victims).

The Eastern Mediterranean was the busiest route, with 1,867 arrivals recorded. Nevertheless, detections along this route decreased by 50 per cent compared to the previous year. This was followed by the Western Mediterranean (1,183 arrivals, -57 per cent) and the Central Mediterranean (1,166 arrivals, -67 per cent). On the Channel route, detections of people attempting to cross the border into the UK decreased by 9 per cent to  2,281. In the same period last year, the most frequented route was West Africa, with 4,740 arrivals: in January 2026, arrivals on this route stood at 1,010, down 79 per cent. There were 222 crossings on the Western Balkans route, 74 per cent fewer than in January 2025, while on the eastern land border (between Belarus and the Baltic States), arrivals fell by 74 per cent to 134.

Finally, with regard to origin, the most frequently reported nationalities were Afghan, Algerian, and Bangladeshi, although Finally, regarding origin, the most frequently reported nationalities were Afghan, Algerian, and Bangladeshi, although many are still being verified.