Brussels – The European Union’s efforts to adapt to climate change “remain insufficient to prevent avoidable impacts and manage increasing risks”. And the danger is that, without adequate action, the impacts will worsen, eroding and destabilising Europe’s economic and social foundations. This is stated in black and white by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change—an independent body established by the 2021 European Climate Law and composed of scientific experts to provide the EU with scientific knowledge, expertise and advice on climate change—in its opinion published today (17 February). In the document entitled “Strengthening climate change resilience. Recommendations for an effective EU regulatory framework for adaptation”, the Committee urges the EU to prepare for the consequences of a global warming scenario of 2.8-3.3ºC by 2100.
It comes as no surprise that the European continent is already suffering from climate change, as evidenced by the numerous extreme events that have ravaged several European countries in recent months and years: most recently, the Cyclone Harry that hit southern Europe at the end of January, and the Storm Dana that struck south-eastern Spain in October 2024, causing the deaths of 237 people. As the Committee explains, these extreme events—not only floods, but also heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, sea level rise, and coastal erosion—are the result of the increase in global average temperatures of around 1.4ºC compared to pre-industrial levels and “insufficient global progress on mitigation“, a combination that makes it “increasingly likely that the 1.5ºC target set out in the Paris Agreement” in 2015 will be exceeded.
Faced with figures of this kind, and with Europe “warming at a rate approximately twice the global average”, according to the Board, extreme weather events will be “more frequent and severe,” with consequences “felt in all regions of Europe” and a cost that will also be economic. Such phenomena “are already causing serious losses across Europe. Extreme heat alone has caused tens of thousands of premature deaths in recent years, including around 24,000 in the summer of 2025,” recalled the chair of the Advisory Board, Ottmar Edenhofer. In addition, “economic damage to infrastructure and material assets currently amounts to around €45 billion per year.” In this context, “greater adaptation efforts are not simply optional, but essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and the very economic foundations of Europe,” he urges.
The five recommendations
It is precisely on this point that the Board is trying to shake up European institutions and countries. In particular, the experts point out that “a stronger European regulatory framework can provide long-term consistency and guidance, facilitate cooperation and solidarity, and enable Member States to manage climate-related risks more effectively.” Currently, the EU has its reference point in the EU Adaptation Strategy of 2021, which focuses on developing solutions to reduce climate risks, and is developing a new integrated framework for climate resilience and risk management in Europe, expected in the second half of 2026. The Committee makes it clear that the watchword is preparation and formulates five recommendations.
The Union must ” mandate and harmonise climate risk assessments across EU policies and Member States, using common climate scenarios and methodological standards” and “adopt a common reference for adaptation planning,
preparing for climate risks consistent with a pathway to 2.8-3.3 °C of global warming by 2100,” which “would
translate to higher levels in Europe,
which is currently around 1 °C warmer than the global average.” For the Board, “this should be accompanied by the systematic use of more adverse scenarios for stress testing.” The third recommendation concerns the definition of “a clear vision for a climate-resilient EU by 2050 and beyond, supported by sectoral strategies and measurable adaptation targets,” while the fourth is to “embed fair and just climate resilience by design across EU policies, programmes and investments, underpinned by monitoring, evaluation and learning.” Finally, the EU must “mobilise public and private adaptation investment and establish a more coherent approach to managing the growing costs of climate impacts through the EU budget, economic governance, and risk-sharing mechanisms.”
For Professor Laura Diaz Anadon, Vice-Chair of the Advisory Committee, “adaptation goes beyond climate policy” and “a robust EU adaptation framework is fundamental to address the systemic risks that threaten the security of critical services, food, water and energy supplies, to ensure the stability needed to invest in a competitive and innovative economy, and to protect the health of EU citizens and ecosystems.”
Finally, while adaptation is necessary and urgent, the report points out that mitigation is essential and complementary because ”
every additional increment of global warming increases climate impacts and risks across Europe” and, therefore, “adaptation cannot substitute for mitigation.” In other words, while Europe is strengthening its climate adaptation capacity to minimise the impacts of extreme events, far-reaching mitigation measures remain necessary: among many others, a drastic and lasting reduction in emissions and an increase in carbon absorption to stabilise and reduce global temperatures and prevent the most serious and irreversible impacts. In fact, the two actions must go hand in hand.
