Brussels – No major surprises, at least not for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU. The elections in Baden-Württemberg mark a comeback for the Greens, with Die Grünen obtaining 30.2 per cent of the vote, while the Christian Democrats are just half a point behind (29.7 per cent). This result should mean the same number of seats in the southern state’s parliament (56 each). The question now is governability: the Social Democrats (SPD) barely broke the 5 per cent threshold, taking 10 seats. The third force, the AfD, doubled its share of the vote compared to the 2021 regional elections, winning 18.8 per cent and gaining 30 seats, continuing its growth and proclaiming itself the real winner. Neither the liberals of the FDP nor the radical left of Die Linke reached the threshold.
The Baden-Württemberg state parliament has just four political parties, which are far apart from each other. The Greens could only secure a majority in the 157-seat chamber by governing with the CDU, and probably vice versa. It seems unlikely that the German centre-right will open to the far right, as the EPP did in Europe, even if in Germany, migration issues have already shown how balances and alliances are always variable.
Looking at the outcome of the elections five years earlier, the Greens and the CDU remain the first and second local forces respectively. From this point of view, there has been no change. Voter apathy, the leading party, plays a role in local elections. Voter turnout was 69.6 per cent, up from 63.8 per cent five years earlier. However, the image of an electorate distant from politics remains.
The elections in early March, the first in a series, will therefore be an initial test for Merz and his party, as well as a test for Germany. On 22 March, elections will be held in Rhineland-Palatinate, currently led by the SPD, with the CDU in second place, and the Greens in third; On 6 September, elections will be held in Saxony-Anhalt, currently in the hands of the CDU, which is under threat from the far right, with the Greens the smallest group. On 20 September, it will be the turn of voters in the capital, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the capital, the political weight is distributed as follows: CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke, AfD, while the north-eastern state, governed by the SPD-Linke coalition, is a test for the left.
In any case, the votes that will slowly lead up to the 2027 general elections will be a moment to test where the country stands. Is the Greens’ success a one-off or will it become a general trend? Will the Social Democrats stay on course, or will they disappear? Will the AfD continue to grow everywhere? The upcoming elections will have to answer all these questions, and Baden-Württemberg offers a taste of what is to come.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
