Scientists sound the alarm on wildfires: Risk of a 39 per cent increase in the best-case scenario

Brussels –Heat and wildfires form a terrible combination for Europe, as this summer’s events show — and one that is likely to become the norm. Researchers warn that even in the most optimistic scenario for combating global warming, forest fires will affect 39 per cent more of Europe’s territory by the end of the century. This is the finding of the recently published  study, which adds that the increase in fires is inevitable “unless action is taken to manage them more effectively.” 

The team of researchers therefore emphasises the need for prevention, awareness-raising, and risk mitigation, the very areas the European Commission is strenuously working on. However, to eradicate the scourge of summer wildfires, a serious commitment to climate policy is required, as the link between climate change and wildfires is strong and difficult to break, the publication notes. 

“Fire weather and fire management capacity are important drivers,” according to the introduction to the study signed by 11 international researchers and experts. It follows that action is necessary on both fronts. As regards weather conditions, “by the end of the century, intensified fire weather alone could increase annual burned area by approximately 39 per cent under a low emission scenario and by nearly 192 per cent under a high emission scenario.” This means prioritising sustainability policies and accelerating the development of fire response systems.

 “Continued improvements in fire management capacity could substantially moderate these increases, reducing burned area by 72–92 per cent compared to scenarios without these improvements,” the study notes. However, it is important to note that investing in fire-fighting services without tackling climate change risks being counterproductive, because “under strong climate change, fire activity still rises in about 55 per cent of Europe’s fire-prone regions, even if investments in fire management capacity continue at current levels.” 

In summary, overall, improvements in forest fire management capacity “improved wildfire management capacity has the potential to greatly limit impacts of worsening fire weather, but may not fully offset strong climate change impacts.” The European Union and the governments of the Member States have been warned.