Ukraine, $86.1 billion reconstruction spending on agriculture alone

Brussels – A total of $86.1 billion, twice France’s recovery plan: that’s the cost of reconstruction for Ukraine’s agricultural sector alone if the ongoing war were to end now. Estimating the damage to a sector that is critical to food security is the European Parliament’s think tank, which in a study is beginning to calculate the entity of the action plan of the country’s partners. By the end of 2023, Ukraine’s primary sector “suffered an estimated $80 billion in damage,” the analysts note.

Rebuilding to revive the industry will not come at an insignificant cost. Restoring the industry alone will entail a $56.1 billion expenditure in addition to another $32 billion to remove unexploded mines, thereby enabling the recovery of fertile land. Total: $86.1 billion, the equivalent of two recovery plans for France alone (value €40.3 billion, about $42.8 billion).

In more detail, the agriculture portion alone (the $56.1 billion) envisages $9.4 billion to replace the lost resources needed to restart the industry. The remaining $46.7 billion, estimated over ten years, is to restore agricultural production to pre-war levels.

The estimated damage to Ukraine’s agriculture includes stolen, destroyed, or damaged assets totaling $10.3 billion, of which agricultural machinery accounts for 56.7 percent of the lost value. An estimated 181 thousand pieces of agricultural equipment were damaged or destroyed, while 2.8 million tons of grain, 1.2 million tons of oilseeds, and 124 thousand tons of fertilizer were lost. In addition, about 11.6 million liters of fuel were “lost or stolen.”

But there is more than just the production aspect. There is also the issue of storage for the country’s economic system and the agricultural sector. “Storage facilities are also a recurring target of Russian attacks,” the study points out, and it is estimated that Ukraine has lost nearly 20 percent of its storage capacity. 

The €50 billion EU aid promised to Kyiv for reconstruction seems to be insufficient, as the primary sector alone requires much more, and even more will be required as the conflict continues. The study, therefore, highlights the effort that the international community will have to make to support Ukraine.