EU determined to open accession negotiations with Ukraine by March

Brussels – As already announced by Ursula von der Leyen, the EU wants to speed up Ukraine’s long path to accession. The change of gear by the Polish rotating presidency of the EU Council compared to the reticent Hungarian one is remarkable. In the first six months of the year, when Warsaw will dictate the agenda of the member countries’ meetings, the EU could open negotiations with Kyiv on two of the six planned clusters. The first—is on “fundemantal” requirements—as early as March, and the second on the adjustment to the Common Foreign and Security Policy by June.

At the EU General Affairs Council, Sweden’s Minister for European Affairs, Jessica Rosencrantz, brought together counterparts for an informal meeting on EU enlargement in Kyiv. Along with the 27 member countries, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna were also present. Diplomatic sources explain that the meeting reportedly revealed broad support for opening the two clusters as soon as possible and the need for the EU Council “to be ready to recognize the progress made by all candidate countries.” Because—see Western Balkans—the “lack of recognition has already fueled long-standing frustrations.”

The capitals most supportive of  the integration process feel the time is right because—as Rosencrantz said—”there is very strong support from the Polish presidency.” Among them is Stockholm, which today supports Kyiv “in 25 of the 35 negotiating chapters,” the minister claimed. The goal is to open the five “fundamentals” cluster chapters by March. That is, to start working with Kyiv on the chapters on the judiciary and fundamental rights, justice, freedom and security, public procurement, statistics, financial control, as well as economic criteria, functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform.

Commissioner Kos took up the challenge, adding that “from a technical point of view, it would be possible to open the cluster on external relations in the first half of the year as well.” And that, in this morning’s discussion, “many member states supported” the goal. This support is crucial because the European Commission alone—which would be already preparing the screening report on external relations for submission to the EU Council—cannot work miracles: “We have to go through the Council procedure,” Kos reminded.

In parallel with working on the flanks of the most sceptical member states, “it is crucial that Ukraine continues to engage,” the EU commissioner stressed. Zelensky’s deputy replied to her confidently, “We have done our work, and we await the contribution of the Commission and the member states.” As for the fundamentals cluster, Kyiv has already identified priorities for anti-corruption and rule of law reforms and “prepared our vision for public administration reform,” Stefanishyna assured.

In its annual report on enlargement, published by the European Commission on Oct. 30, Brussels already certified Kyiv’s Advancement to achieve the so-called Community acquis, which is the set of rights and obligations that are the basis of EU law and must be accepted and integrated into national laws by the incoming countries.

However, Ukraine will have to overcome resistance from member countries less aligned with Brussels—Slovakia and Hungary above all. On the long road to EU membership, roughly 150 votes must be passed, all requiring unanimity.

Budapest and Bratislava are on the warpath after the interruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and accuse Kyiv of shutting off a key energy supply for their territories. “We had an agreement with Russia that expired on January 1, so it was no surprise,” Stefanishyna explained, adding that Kyiv has been “in contact with member states and the European Commission for a long time” and “fully committed to ensuring energy security in Europe.”

Kallas also intervened in the continuing reservations—especially of Budapest—to the rapprochement between Brussels and Kyiv. The head of EU diplomacy has no illusions: even Ukraine’s entry into the EU will be difficult. “But in the end, we always managed” to convince Orbán. The last time just yesterday (Jan. 27), when, to avert the threat of a Hungarian veto on the renewal of sanctions on Russia, the European Commission issued an enigmatic statement on energy solidarity, promising, among other things, that it “will approach Ukraine to request assurances regarding the maintenance of oil pipeline transfers to the EU.”