Europe 2027: Meloni, Le Pen, and others: possible assault of the right in Brussels

Brussels – In the always eternal calendar of European general elections, the coming year could be a year of transition, but it is not certain, because a non-major, non-influential but often troublesome state will go to a vote that may not be a foregone conclusion. The major European states, barring sensational twists and turns, will instead not be called to the polls. However, what is exciting European journalists is 2027, a long way off, but already promising important elections on the continent. In those 365 days, the five major European states will hold major elections, which could give the European Union a new face. 

What is to come

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni‘s term of office will expire; in France, President Emmanuel Macron will have to leave the Élysée Palace after two terms; and in Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez‘s second term will end. Then, in Germany, Friedrich Merz has just stepped into the chancellor’s shoes, but in 2027, he will have to have a new Bundespräsident (president of the Federal Republic) elected. The Poles will also go to the polls to elect their two chambers (Sejm and Senate). As of today, the majority is held by the pro-European Donald Tusk.

Possible elections and developments at the European Council. The hosts will once again be the von der Leyen-Costa couple, although some would not bet on the European Council President being re-elected after his natural term expires in two and a half years. At the table of the 27, then, will be the presence, for those who see it optimistically, of Albania and Montenegro, which from 2028 could sit as members of the Union, albeit provisionally without voting rights, pending national ratifications.

Stepping back to the year to come, the red circle marks April, when Hungarian elections are certain. After fifteen years in power, Viktor Orbán is in danger of losing power for the first time. Challenging him is former follower Péter Magyar, more pro-European and less fond of Moscow’s advances. Magyar will not only have to convince voters that he is ready to govern, but the most important clash will be against a pro-Orban establishment that has been in power for 15 years.

Adieu Macron

The most relevant challenge in 2027 is the one for the Elysée Palace. To date, Emmanuel Macron is one of the presidents least loved by his people. According to  Gallup, Monsieur le Président has a 28% approval rating, the lowest since he took office. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen‘s party, the Rassemblement National (RN), which has always been defeated so far, is making a comeback, with 33 per cent in the polls. Rassemblement National has always been a conservative and Eurosceptic formation, although, as is often the case when approaching power, the more extreme positions soften somewhat.

The big unknown, however, is who the candidates will be. Le Pen is, at the moment, ineligible, as she has been convicted in the first instance for the misuse of European Parliament funds for the benefit of the national party. Watching closely is the disciple Jordan Bardella, group leader of the European Patriots and possible presidential candidate. Challenging the right, possibly the left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, or perhaps the centrist former prime minister Édouard Philippe.

In all likelihood, the French will also change the National Assembly in 2027: if Macron does not dissolve it before the elections, the newly elected president may do so. The current composition does not guarantee stability as five prime ministers have alternated in three years. Le Pen as president could replenish the Patriots in Europe group, capable of creating a solid front against further European integration.

Will Meloni remain?

In Italy, the right-wing’s stay in government until 2027 seems solid. A few bumps in the road between the four majority parties are not enough to bring down Giorgia Meloni, who must overcome the final test of the referendum on justice, scheduled for next year, before the end of her term. Should she succeed, the Fratelli d’Italia government would be a black swan in the unstable recent Italian history: only Berlusconi II (2001-2006) managed to remain united until the end of the legislature.

To counter the Prime Minister’s overwhelming power, there could be the “Wide Camp”, which, from the centre to the extreme left, counts four or five parties, depending on the configuration. The opposition would have the numbers to beat Meloni, but it would have to remain “stubbornly united,” as the Democratic Party secretary, Elly Schlein, put it. From the opposition sides, however, doubts remain about leadership and government agenda; not to mention that at the polls, the right, both centre (Forza Italia) and more extremist (Lega), could be strengthened.

Meloni has proven over these three years not to be a loose cannon in the Union, but a new presidency of hers could give the other conservative parties greater strength. Europe, with her in the rooms that matter, would be less and less federal, more and more confederate.

Hasta luego Sánchez

In the Iberian Peninsula, the situation is more congenial to the left. In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been in office since 2018. Formally, he could run again for the 2027 elections, and in theory, he will. Although the corruption scandals in his party, the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party), are eroding voter confidence,very positive economic results,  however, bode well for the Socialists.

The premier’s problem is not being able to find allies strong enough to guarantee continuity in Parliament. To date, the PSOE governs thanks to the support of the progressive coalition Sumar and the external support of small regional parties. According to the polls, it would lose if it were to face early elections: Vox’s far-right is at an all-time high (17 per cent), and the Partido Popular (PP, EPP) remains firmly the leading party, at around 30 per cent of the vote.

It is hard to know what will happen in the coming months, let alone in 2027. What is certain is that socialists across Europe would not like to see Pedro Sánchez fall: one of the last bastions of the socialist left in the Union. Should it fall earlier than expected, the socialists could abandon the popular party within Parliament and establish themselves once and for all in opposition.

Germany awaiting the crisis

In Berlin, it’s just being whispered, but the AfD, the rightmost party on the political chessboard, is the most liked by Germans. According to Politico polls, the nationalist force is at 26 per cent, one point above the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Among the seats in the Bundestag, however, the extremists are out of the decisions that count, relegated to the opposition since the CDU and SPD govern. Merz’s term of office will last until 2029, but if the economy and electoral projections continue to go wrong, it will be difficult to stay in the saddle until the end.

In 2027, then, the Chancellor will have to find an agreement to elect the President of the Republic: in Berlin, the mechanism is similar to the Italian one, with MPs voting in a united chamber. In the event of a clamorous quarrel between socialists and Catholics within a few hours a crisis with very uncertain outcomes could erupt.

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Tusk overwhelmed by vetoes

Alongside Germany, Poland could also become Eurosceptic again. In Warsaw, Donald Tusk, a centrist, will be in office until the end of his term in 2027. In 2023, Tusk had managed to create a coalition capable of beating the conservative Right and Justice (PiS) party. Last year, however, his mandate became “lame”, given the electoral victory of the historian and former boxer Karol Nawrocki (PiS) as President of the Republic. In Poland, the president has significant powers, including the ability to veto laws, appointees, and international treaties. Nawrocki is using this mechanism to block Tusk’s reformist agenda by putting the executive in trouble. In any case, the strategy may work in the chambers of power, but it does not convince the population: since Nawrocki was elected, polls see PiS on the decline.

Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) seems stable, with 34 per cent support among Poles, thanks to the solid economic growth of around 3 per cent per year. In any case, in 2027, everything will be back on the table, and a new PiS election victory cannot be ruled out today. In Brussels, it’s already known what that means; the last conservative premier was Mateusz Morawiecki, in office from 2017 to 2023. During that time, Poland consolidated the four-way Visegrád (V4) partnership with Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. On several occasions, the four leaders put a spoke in the wheels of the European leaders, especially on immigration. The risk is then that in 2027, the Central European V4 may have stronger allies. This time, no longer only to oppose the proposed reforms but to dictate the line by imposing a sovereignist agenda.