European Parliament and the Court of Justice: the next hurdles for the EU-Mercosur deal

Brussels – With the green light given by a qualified majority of Member States obtained last week, the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement has overcome its most significant hurdle. Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa will fly to Asunción, Paraguay, on 17 January to attend the signing ceremony for the agreement. But it’s not all downhill from here: one big unknown still stands in the way of a final yes to the deal — the European Parliament.

 “In the coming weeks, the Commission will focus on engaging with Members of the European Parliament to secure their support ahead of the final vote on the agreement,” confirmed Olof Gill, spokesperson for Trade at the EU executive, yesterday (14 January). He emphasised that the Commission believes that “this is an agreement that Parliament can support with full confidence.”

For now, however, this is not quite the case, and the European Commission will have some concerns. In fact, according to several sources, if the vote were held today, there would not be enough votes in favour of the trade agreement with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Fortunately, the final vote of approval by the Strasbourg Chamber will not take place for several months.

There will be an initial indication of the European Parliament’s mood as early as next week. On Wednesday, 21 January, MEPs will vote on whether to refer the agreement to the EU Court of Justice for verification of its legality. The initiative was launched in November by 145 MEPs from the EPP, S&D, Renew, the Greens, and The Left to verify the agreement’s compatibility with EU Treaties. The motion has strong cross-party support and, if the chamber approves it, the final ratification of the agreement would be suspended until the Luxembourg judges’ ruling.

 Referring the matter to the EU Court of Justice is “a positive step towards achieving clarity,” said Green Party co-chair Bas Eickhout on the sidelines of the group leaders’ meeting that formalised the agenda for next week’s plenary session. According to AGI, Eickhout stressed that “the vote on the referral will be a good indicator for the final vote” and that it will be “a very close contest”. The Green leader finds it difficult to make predictions because “it’s really fifty-fifty.” 

The fact is that pressure from the agricultural sector, particularly in some EU countries, shows no sign of abating, and political parties are finding it difficult to publicly support the trade agreement with the South American bloc. Opponents are likely to include the Left, the Greens, and the far-right Patriots and Sovereignist parties, as well as French and Polish MEPs. However, according to an expert member of the European Parliament, the yes vote of around 50 MEPs from the People’s Party is also hanging in the balance. 

Von der Leyen’s party, which reportedly warned its colleagues during a closed-door meeting of the group yesterday (14 January): “If Mercosur fails, we can forget about the EU as a global player.” The problem, however, is that the EPP has claimed for years to be the party of farmers, who are now waiting for it to deliver. That is why, according to Politico, there is already talk among the EPP to seek a secret ballot, to allow MEPs to vote without fear of public repercussions.