Disunited Kingdom. Northern Ireland revives referendum to bid farewell to London (and join Dublin)

Brussels – Not even 24 hours after being sworn in as Northern Ireland’s new prime minister, Michelle O’Neill‘s new republican course is served. “I absolutely contest what the British government is advocating, my election demonstrates the change that is taking place in the island,” the vice-president of the Sinn Féin Republicans made clear in an interview for Sky after her appointment as prime minister of the nation—to date still belonging to the United Kingdom. A clear response to London’s position—the referendum to unite with the Republic of Ireland is “decades” away—and an outlook on the medium term for the first Republican-led government in Northern Ireland’s history: “I believe we are in the decade of opportunity.”

No government formation has been possible in Belfast since May 2022 after the first absolute victory for the Republican Independence Party, due to the boycott of the Democratic Unionist Party (according to the provisions of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, power sharing between the Unionist and Republican parties must be guaranteed). After nearly two years of stalemate, an understanding was found between the two major forces in the Northern Ireland Assembly, and last Saturday (Feb. 3) O’Neill was sworn in as prime minister and Unionist Emma Little-Pengelly as deputy prime minister. “We can have power sharing, make it stable and work together every day in terms of public services, and pursue our equally legitimate aspirations,” were the first words to the press from the nation’s new leader, who only the day before had broken with republican tradition by using the term “Northern Ireland” in her swearing-in speech. “I’m a proud Republican, but I think it’s really important to look at people who identify as British and Unionist and tell them I respect their values,” O’Neill explained.

The Sinn Féin party was founded in 1905 as an expression of independence aspirations from London and for unity on the island of Ireland, and during the years of the civil war it was the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Support for the party grew exponentially after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the conflict, and in 2022 it won the most seats in Parliament (27 out of 90). The formation of Northern Ireland’s government has been closely linked to the aftermath of Brexit, since the reintroduction of customs controls between Britain and Northern Ireland on several product categories (required by the European Union after the UK’s exit precisely to preserve the unity on the island of Ireland enshrined in the 1998 peace agreement) has created discontent and protests among Unionists, including political boycotts. Last week, the British government of Rishi Sunak brokered an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party that includes increased funding and that, in outlining the new balance of power sharing in Belfast, provides that there is “no realistic prospect of a referendum” on independence in the next decade. For Northern Irish Republicans, independence binds to the process of union with the Republic of Ireland, which would automatically bring them back into the European Union after their farewell in 2020 by the decision of voters in the United Kingdom as a whole.

Besides Northern Ireland, Scotland.

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Northern Ireland is not the only one of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom to have aspirations for independence and a return to the European Union. London’s most famous dispute is with Scotland, which a decade after its (failed) independence referendum is poised to put a plan for a political split back on the table. Brexit was a real watershed for the Scottish National Party, from the moment that in Scotland the referendum for the UK’s exit from the EU saw an overwhelming 62 per cent “no” majority prevail against 38 per cent “yes” votes, in contrast to the rest of the country (52 per cent of British citizens voted in favour). Just one year after Brexit was made official, the triumph of former Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the 2021 elections for the renewal of the Holyrood Parliament, seemed to confirm Scottish restlessness.

Despite Sturgeon’s exit from the scene last year due to a Scottish National Party funding scandal, the priority of a new independence referendum (which currently sees the “yes” vote slightly ahead), with condemnation of Brexit and its economic consequences as a driving factor, has also remained on the agenda of her successor, former right arm Humza Yousaf. It is for this reason that attention will have to be paid to the outcome of the next UK elections (the date is not yet known, but they are expected in the second half of 2024) since Prime Minister Yousaf sees them as a possible turning point. The government in Edinburgh could immediately start negotiations with London should the Scottish National Party win a majority of the seats guaranteed to Scotland in the House of Commons, while another scenario is that of using the elections for the renewal of the Scottish Parliament in 2026 as a “de facto” vote on independence from the United Kingdom and a request for (re)membership of the European Union.