Brussels – 2024 may produce a real political earthquake: the uncertainty of the ballot box on both sides of the Atlantic can redefine the balance of the European Union and the United States and, inevitably, the relations between the two. Paolo Gentiloni is aware of this and does not hide it. Considering the EU ballot date in early June and the U.S. in November, “the outcome of both elections could have serious consequences for our climate policies and our economic policies on both sides of the Atlantic,” the Economy Commissioner said in a speech at Harvard University.
On one side is the European Union: the Italian member of the von der Leyen team admits that there are many uncertainties, especially about political commitments called into question. “The campaign for the next European elections will, to some extent, also be a referendum on the Green Deal,” as farmers’ protests and the solidarity shown by some demonstrate. These sides could put everything back on the table in the next legislature. “Europe is preparing for European elections that could produce a shift towards extremists, especially on the right, and see the center crushed.” With the resulting repercussions. Because, Gentiloni warns, “populists across Europe are still focused on immigration but have found a new rallying cry and are now riding an anti-green wave.”
On the other side is the United States. Here, the situation is not much different. Like in Europe, “we can expect the upcoming U.S. presidential election campaign to be based on two opposing views on the merits of the green transition,” the Economy Commissioner continues, concerned about who voters will choose in November. “The November elections seem destined to represent a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, who are close in age but distant on almost everything else.”
Gentiloni’s concerns are the same as those of the College of Commissioners; Brussels is aware of the possible fallout in bilateral relations in the event of a victory by the republican candidate Donald Trump. Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario of a renewed trade tug-of-war in tariffs, which also risks hitting that Green Deal that is so central and that no one wants to call into question in the Old Continent. “I want to be crystal clear. To reverse the course of the European Green Deal would be extremely short-sighted, environmentally, economically, and geopolitically,” Gentiloni stressed. “2024 is really a crossroads for Europe. But 2024 will, of course, be a crossroads for the United States as well,” he sums up. The future of the EU, its policies, and its strategies will determine this crossroads. Much is at stake, especially the economic resilience of the 27 Member States: “Looking ahead, the challenges are becoming clear: an economic slowdown, with the question looming over Europe’s competitiveness.”
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
