NATO’s “significant increases” in collective defence in response to Trump: “Don’t undermine deterrence”

Brussels – After the first outraged reaction, NATO’s response to Donald Trump‘s threats that he will not defend allies who do not spend enough on defence is all in the data. “Today I can announce the latest figures; since the investment pledge was made in 2014, European allies and Canada have invested more than an additional $600 billion,” disclosed North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, during the pre-ministerial Defense press conference in Brussels: “NATO has been able to prevent attacks on allies for more than 70 years, and this is because it has always been communicated at all times and clearly that we are ready to defend ourselves.” This is the warning to whoever becomes the new US president, reaffirming that “the idea that an attack on one ally will provoke a response from the entire alliance is a credible deterrence.”

A deterrence that, following Stoltenberg’s words, translates into an “unprecedented increase” in investment in this sector (last year “amounting to 11 per cent”) by the Alliance member countries, pending the 2024 figures: “This year, I expect 18 allies to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence, in 2014 it was only 3,” the NATO secretary general anticipated. Regarding more specifically the 29 European member countries, again this year, “$380 billion is expected to be spent on defence,” which collectively speaking reaches “for the first time” the famous 2 per cent of GDP target. Stoltenberg did not provide the list of allies who will match the target agreed in 2014, but he urged to keep working: “Some of them still have a way to go, because in Vilnius [at the last NATO summit in 2023, ed.] we agreed that we all have to do it, and this is the minimum threshold.”

If data is the most concrete way to respond to the Trump threats—that Washington may be disinterested in any Russian aggression—Stoltenberg did not shy away from elaborating on the issue in the face of persistent questions from the press before the start of the NATO defence ministers’ summit scheduled for today (Feb. 15). “We must not undermine NATO’s deterrence that we are investing in, including in the way we communicate,” not least to “leave no room for Moscow to miscalculate and misunderstand our resolve to defend ourselves,” the Alliance secretary general explained. “As long as we are united behind this message, we will prevent attacks on every ally and keep the peace,” but conversely, “any suggestion that we will not protect ourselves puts us all at risk.” An issue of no minor importance to Washington either: “The United States has never fought a war on its own without NATO allies, from Korea to Afghanistan, and the only time we have resorted to Article 5 was for an attack on the United States,” he spared no snark to top Alliance member Stoltenberg, reminding that “the more they are concerned about China, the more they need a strong NATO.”

Trump’s words on NATO

Stirring up the dust of controversy were Trump’s very harsh words against the other 30 NATO allies when he recalled his years as President of the United States at a rally in South Carolina on Saturday (Feb. 10): “One of the leaders of a large country asked ‘If we don’t pay up and Russia attacks us, will you protect us?’, and I replied ‘
You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?

No, I would not protect you.
In fact,
I would encourage them [the Russians, ed] to do whatever the hell they want.” An ominous prospect given the eventual re-election of The Donald to the White House and the rampant scepticism of Republicans in Congress in providing further military and financial support to Kyiv in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from February 24, 2022, and the risks of future conflict extension in Europe. This is why the reactions of the leaders of EU institutions and member states were not long in coming.

“The Transatlantic Alliance has underpinned the security and prosperity of Americans, Canadians, and Europeans for 75 years; reckless statements about NATO security and Article 5 solidarity serve only Putin’s interests. They do not bring greater security or peace to the world.” This is what the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, made clear, at the same time calling for “the need for the EU to urgently further develop its strategic autonomy and invest in its defense,” while keeping “our Alliance strong.” Belgian Prime Minister and current President of the EU Council, Alexander De Croo, also has reaffirmed that “our greatest asset in the face of Putin is our unity, and the last thing we should do is to compromise it.” Dry was the comment of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, to what he called “a silly idea” like “so many we will see and hear about during the US election campaign”: “NATO cannot be a military alliance à la carte, which depends on the mood of the US president,” because “either it exists or it does not exist.” Poland’s Defense Minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, warned that “no election campaign is an excuse to play games with the security of the Alliance,” while Germany’s Foreign Ministry published on X the creed “one for all and all for one,” recalling that “NATO keeps more than 950 million people safe—from Anchorage to Erzurum.”